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Guide Horse's Breeding Prices

Discussion in 'Wynncraft' started by Yuno F Gasai, Sep 17, 2015.

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Yuno F Gasai Forum God, FW

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HeyZeer0 said: ↑
I wrote a simple "algorithm" that perfectly simulates a horse breeding process.

My results are the following over 1 million simulated trades:

So the average required amount of LEs required to breed a white horse is around 75.
You have about 8 to 27 per million trades chance to get a white horse buying only 8 horses.
You are also able to be damn unlucky (1 in a million) and need to buy 2110 horses (~12 stacks).

I really prefer to accept the whole average as a good amount, because otherwise, the data is insanely positively biased. For example, if you consider only the top 20 trades that mostly occurred, the average is 72 horses, but the top 20 only happened 87.613 times, which is about 8,7% of the total attempts.

There's a lot of stuff that you have to consider while calculating it, including the not-so-random java default random algorithm that's used over wynn. This also takes into consideration trades that the horse tier went down.

The approach I had is brute-forcing.
We are not asking what's the chance of getting a white horse, instead, we question how much trades do we need until getting a white horse. So basically my "algo" simulates singular breeding until white is reached. Then makes that 1 million more times and creates some averages based on the values obtained.
You can get very precise values by brute-forcing a simple task like that, simply because we have a million data available, not 100 or 1 thousand.

Have fun with my data

My java code:
Made to be easily understandable, meaning it has a bit higher complexity that increases the calculation time but it's still fast (took about 3s to calculate the 1 million attempts).
Code:
    public static int calculateBreedAttempts(int maxTier) {
        int boughtHorses = 0;

        // the java random instance
        Random r = new Random();

        // map -> K = tier | V = amount of horses
        HashMap<Integer, Integer> horseTiers = new HashMap<>();

        // loop until one horse of the max tier was created
        int currentTier = 0;
        while (horseTiers.getOrDefault(maxTier, 0) != 1) {
            // if current tier == 0, means we need to buy until we reach 2 horses
            if (currentTier == 0) {
                boughtHorses += (2 - horseTiers.getOrDefault(0, 0));
                horseTiers.put(0, 2);

                currentTier++;
                continue;
            }

            // if the horses of the current tier is below 2 that means we have to breed!
            if (horseTiers.getOrDefault(currentTier, 0) < 2) {
                // we need two horses of the previous tier to breed if not met, reduce the tier
                if (horseTiers.get(currentTier-1) != 2) {
                    currentTier--;
                    continue;
                }

                // always 1 horse will need to be removed from the last tier
                horseTiers.put(currentTier-1, horseTiers.get(currentTier-1) - 1);

                double chance = r.nextDouble() * 100;

                // breed was a success (add 1 horse the current tier and clear all from the last one)
                if (chance <= 20) {
                    horseTiers.put(currentTier, horseTiers.getOrDefault(currentTier, 0) + 1);
                    horseTiers.put(currentTier-1, 0);
                    continue;
                }

                // same tier horse or current tier is 1 (because there's not a tier -1 horse lmao)
                if (chance <= (20 + 50) || currentTier == 1) continue;

                // horse tier went down
                horseTiers.put(currentTier-2, horseTiers.get(currentTier-2) + 1);
                continue;
            }

            // required breeds for the next tier were met, let's increase the tier
            currentTier++;
        }

        return boughtHorses;
    }
Click to expand...
I cant code for shit, did you do the breeding % correct (they are diffrent for browns as the cant downgrade) @Ascended Kitten can you look at his code?

Yuno F Gasai, Dec 31, 2020

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Yuno F Gasai Forum God, FW

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HeyZeer0 said: ↑
I wrote a simple "algorithm" that perfectly simulates a horse breeding process.

My results are the following over 1 million simulated trades:

So the average required amount of LEs required to breed a white horse is around 75.
You have about 8 to 27 per million trades chance to get a white horse buying only 8 horses.
You are also able to be damn unlucky (1 in a million) and need to buy 2110 horses (~12 stacks).

I really prefer to accept the whole average as a good amount, because otherwise, the data is insanely positively biased. For example, if you consider only the top 20 trades that mostly occurred, the average is 72 horses, but the top 20 only happened 87.613 times, which is about 8,7% of the total attempts.

There's a lot of stuff that you have to consider while calculating it, including the not-so-random java default random algorithm that's used over wynn. This also takes into consideration trades that the horse tier went down.

The approach I had is brute-forcing.
We are not asking what's the chance of getting a white horse, instead, we question how much trades do we need until getting a white horse. So basically my "algo" simulates singular breeding until white is reached. Then makes that 1 million more times and creates some averages based on the values obtained.
You can get very precise values by brute-forcing a simple task like that, simply because we have a million data available, not 100 or 1 thousand.

Have fun with my data

My java code:
Made to be easily understandable, meaning it has a bit higher complexity that increases the calculation time but it's still fast (took about 3s to calculate the 1 million attempts).
Code:
    public static int calculateBreedAttempts(int maxTier) {
        int boughtHorses = 0;

        // the java random instance
        Random r = new Random();

        // map -> K = tier | V = amount of horses
        HashMap<Integer, Integer> horseTiers = new HashMap<>();

        // loop until one horse of the max tier was created
        int currentTier = 0;
        while (horseTiers.getOrDefault(maxTier, 0) != 1) {
            // if current tier == 0, means we need to buy until we reach 2 horses
            if (currentTier == 0) {
                boughtHorses += (2 - horseTiers.getOrDefault(0, 0));
                horseTiers.put(0, 2);

                currentTier++;
                continue;
            }

            // if the horses of the current tier is below 2 that means we have to breed!
            if (horseTiers.getOrDefault(currentTier, 0) < 2) {
                // we need two horses of the previous tier to breed if not met, reduce the tier
                if (horseTiers.get(currentTier-1) != 2) {
                    currentTier--;
                    continue;
                }

                // always 1 horse will need to be removed from the previous tier
                horseTiers.put(currentTier-1, horseTiers.get(currentTier-1) - 1);

                double chance = r.nextDouble() * 100;

                // breed was a success (add 1 horse the current tier and clear all from the last one)
                if (chance <= 20) {
                    horseTiers.put(currentTier, horseTiers.getOrDefault(currentTier, 0) + 1);
                    horseTiers.put(currentTier-1, 0);
                    continue;
                }

                // same tier horse or current tier is 1 (because there's not a tier -1 horse lmao)
                if (chance <= (20 + 50) || currentTier == 1) continue;

                // horse tier went down
                horseTiers.put(currentTier-2, horseTiers.get(currentTier-2) + 1);
                continue;
            }

            // required breeds for the next tier were met, let's increase the tier
            currentTier++;
        }

        return boughtHorses;
    }
Click to expand...
I think you went and messed up the downgrading percantage, I just ran a scenerio of a 0.8 staying the same and 0.2 upgrading and got an average 0f 81le per white

Yuno F Gasai, Dec 31, 2020

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HeyZeer0 Wynncraft Developer Staff Member Admin Developer Game Developer Featured Wynncraftian CHAMPION

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Yuno F Gasai said: ↑

I think you went and messed up the downgrading percantage, I just ran a scenerio of a 0.8 staying the same and 0.2 upgrading and got an average 0f 81le per white
Click to expand...

Oh, you are right dammit. I forgot to remove 1 horse when the tier went down hahaha

Fixed statistics:

Final Average horses needed to get a tier 4 horse on 1 million attempts is 316.

Lowest required horses amount is = 8 (happened 19x)
Highest required horses amount is = 4590 (happened 1x)

Top 20 most usual trades:
- 90 horses with 2886 occurrences.
- 104 horses with 2875 occurrences.
- 77 horses with 2869 occurrences.
- 76 horses with 2848 occurrences.
- 83 horses with 2848 occurrences.
- 95 horses with 2837 occurrences.
- 64 horses with 2822 occurrences.
- 89 horses with 2821 occurrences.
- 85 horses with 2819 occurrences.
- 81 horses with 2807 occurrences.
- 96 horses with 2799 occurrences.
- 86 horses with 2791 occurrences.
- 78 horses with 2780 occurrences.
- 79 horses with 2779 occurrences.
- 66 horses with 2776 occurrences.
- 61 horses with 2775 occurrences.
- 82 horses with 2774 occurrences.
- 75 horses with 2773 occurrences.
- 97 horses with 2773 occurrences.
- 84 horses with 2772 occurrences.
Average horses required on the top 20 is: 82

Total Weighted Average (required horses * amount of times that happened) = 316
Click to expand...

So the average required amount of LEs required to breed a white horse is around ~119.
You have about 8 to 27 per million trades chance to get a white horse buying only 8 horses.
You are also able to be damn unlucky (1 in a million) and need to buy 4590 horses (~26 stacks).

Sorry and thanks for the heads up

HeyZeer0, Dec 31, 2020

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HeyZeer0 said: ↑

Oh, you are right dammit. I forgot to remove 1 horse when the tier went down hahaha

Fixed statistics:

So the average required amount of LEs required to breed a white horse is around ~119.
You have about 8 to 27 per million trades chance to get a white horse buying only 8 horses.
You are also able to be damn unlucky (1 in a million) and need to buy 4590 horses (~26 stacks).

Sorry and thanks for the heads up
Click to expand...

No problem, I just calculate it on paper (got an excel nowdays just in case they change the percentages)

Yuno F Gasai, Dec 31, 2020

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Yuno F Gasai said: ↑

Bump
Click to expand...

I see it is your eternal mission to never let this thread be put in the dark D:

IceResistance, Jan 8, 2021

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IceResistance said: ↑

I see it is your eternal mission to never let this thread be put in the dark D:
Click to expand...

It goes under after a couple of weeks but comes back up again

Yuno F Gasai, Jan 8, 2021

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Holy shit. This thread is 6 years old.

DaCorruption, Jan 13, 2021

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Matteo_Games said: ↑

Holy shit. This thread is 6 years old.
Click to expand...

Amazing, this is like the 7th oldest thread that's still open

Yuno F Gasai, Jan 13, 2021

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i got lucky recently sold a black horse but the guy gave me 4 le when i ask for 2.5 le and he let me keep it so yeah thanks for ur guide it paid off

tinycyan, Jan 13, 2021

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tinycyan said: ↑

i got lucky recently sold a black horse but the guy gave me 4 le when i ask for 2.5 le and he let me keep it so yeah thanks for ur guide it paid off
Click to expand...

always glad to help!

Yuno F Gasai, Jan 14, 2021

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Take a tip I learned from the HSB forums and delete your bumps when you make the next one, so that people don't have to scroll through pages of bumps

ramenstew, Jan 14, 2021

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ramenstew said: ↑

Take a tip I learned from the HSB forums and delete your bumps when you make the next one, so that people don't have to scroll through pages of bumps
Click to expand...

I only delete them if there are two directly after each other, altho I might clean the thread up sometime

Yuno F Gasai, Jan 14, 2021

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This is very informative, I'm rather impressed.

BlueChaos, Feb 13, 2021

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BlueChaos said: ↑

This is very informative, I'm rather impressed.
Click to expand...

Thanks you, I was bored 6 years ago and this is the result

Yuno F Gasai, Feb 14, 2021

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6 years old what the fuc

Also tfw 2015 was 6 years ago Jesus Christ

Skidooskei, Mar 27, 2021

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Yuno F Gasai Forum God, FW

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Skidooskei said: ↑

6 years old what the fuc

Also tfw 2015 was 6 years ago Jesus Christ
Click to expand...

people dont think it be like that but it do

Yuno F Gasai, Mar 28, 2021

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casually bumps a six-year-old guide

Jackkoh, Jun 1, 2021

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Jackkoh said: ↑

casually bumps a six-year-old guide
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someone has to do it

Yuno F Gasai, Jun 3, 2021

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Yuno F Gasai said: ↑

someone has to do it
Click to expand...

I honestly thought this was locked but
It was not.

Jackkoh, Jun 4, 2021

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Yuno F Gasai Forum God, FW

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Jackkoh said: ↑

I honestly thought this was locked but
It was not.
Click to expand...

this thread will never get locked

Yuno F Gasai, Jun 12, 2021

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