Do Mythics Drop In Chests?

Doesn't add up, there's people who get Mythics in chests like 5-10k, so if it is a million theoretically you shouldn't even find a mythic in like 50k chests

 

everyone already told you its 7 in a million stop

 

yes they do drop in chests but there's a 7 in a million chance to get one

:feelsbadman:

 

It's all random chance. If someone has extremely good luck, they could get mythics frequently.

 

Calm down

 

Okay. This is how I will put it.

The odds of a mythic(common opinion)is 7 in a million. With my semi-loot gear(Diamond Dust, a crappy Jera, and Knucklebones), I have about 100% Loot Bonus. This adds up to roughly 55% extra items in a chest.

Now from my experience lootrunning, the average Loot 3 chest that I open has about 4-5 EB, 5-7 powders of any tier, 10 items and about 4 empty slots(REALLY rough guesses). This means that if you have a full loot set, you should get about 10-15 items per T3 chest.

Now for some math. 7 in a million is roughly 1 in 143,000, which means you need to go through 143k items for one mythic to show up. Since each T3 chest has about 10-15 items(13 items will be used here)with a full loot set(my estimate), you will need to open ELEVEN THOUSAND T3 chests, equal to over 725 of Adomorn's Dernel Jungle runs.

So this is why legitimately finding a mythic is a special moment on the server in my opinion.

 

Alright probability lesson everyone:

A 7 in a million chance, which reduces to 1 in 143,000 (or whatever it is) does not guarentee a mythic every 143,000 chests.
And because each chest is it’s own independent event, these probabilities don’t stack. You have an equal chance of getting a mythic in the first chest you ever open and the 1 millionth chest you open. Just because you’ve gone for A couple thousand with no mythic does not increase you chances of getting a mythic in the next chest. Because of this, it’s perfectly normal To go for thousands of chests with no mythics while someone lucky can get a mythic within 500 chests. It’s how probability works. The 1 in 143,000 chance simply dictates the likelihood of you finding a mythic in a single, individual chest, not the amount of chests you open before getting a mythic.

Tl;dr it’s perfectly plausible to go through a thousand or two of chests with no mythics.

 

It's plausible to go through any amount with no mythics, really. I'm at 7.2k with no mythics. Weren't there people with upwards of 15k and 20k chests with no mythic?

 

Well plausible and possible are two different things, while it is possible to go through even millions of chests with no mythics, at some point it does become absurd and almost impossible. I’m not sure about 15-20k chests, you’ll have to do more exact math to figure out how likely that is, but I’m saying in his case of 2k chests, it’s perfectly normal to not have a mythic.

________________________________

And of course, this is all assuming everyone has the same loot bonus and always opens chests that are the same age, which isn’t true. Your method of loot running/ time zone when you get on could also impact results.

 

I have like 5k chests... Only Found 8 mythics...

Oh, 4.38k

 

w h a t

 

Ur bad, I only found 9

 

Az x2, Archangel x2, Apocalypse on a double loot bomb while grinding Troll hair for From The Bottom (Funniest day of my life), Pure I stole from my sister while she was grinding herb cave, and a Stratiformis (86 now 93 ws) from a t1 outside rodoroc!

________________________________

boi I'm setting up a loot set as we speak... There's a storm coming



that arch you found the other day doesn't count??? :D

 

I’m starting to think the real probability for mythics is actually 0.07% instead of 7 in a million. Cause that’d explain his high mythic drop rate, cause if you do the math (.9993^2000), you’d still have about a 25% to not get a mythic in 2k chests, but it’s still relatively possible to get a couple of mythics within 5-10k chests.

Idk, just putting it out there. Can anyone from the CT confirm the mythic drop rate?

 

I can also confirm I did not have loot bonus sets on when I found any of these.

 

To do the probability for getting a mythic over 2k chests you do this:
(2000 NCR 1 )*(.000007) <--- 7/1 million
result: .014
What that means: you have a 1.4% chance of getting a mythic after 2000 chests.
Now to explain the mechanics of that equation.
NCR = Paper definition: "The number of possibilities for choosing an ordered set of r objects (a permutation) from a total of n objects."
Human definition: It essentially means you are picking 1 out of 2000, 2000 times. Fortunately that also = 2000 since you're only choosing 1 and there are exactly 2000 ways of chosing 1 within 2000. (that makes sense yes?).
When you start trying to find more mythics it gets astronomically harder. Lets try two mythics.
(4000 NCR 2)*(.000007)*(.000007)= 9.8e-8 or .000000098
For each mythic you multiply by another 7/1 million. RNG is a fun and engaging game mechanic right?!
If you wanted a 1/1 chance of getting a mythic, you'd need to open: (approximated by rounding to 3 decimal places) 142888 chests! WOW! That is (142888 NCR 1)*(.000007)!
So, to anyone saying that you are somehow guaranteed to get a mythic within a magical 2000 chests, think again. The numbers don't lie.
Edit: I fixed my error. @BilgewaterBazuka

 

its 7/1 mil
not 1/7 mil

 

.-. I'll fix it in a few ty

 

i got 2 mythic from 1500 chests opened...

 

your chance of that happening:
(1500 NCR 2)*(.000007)*(.000007) = 0.00005508825
such luck