Selling Auction: Mythic Bow : Az!

that's not possible. with the amount of mythics found in the time gavel has been out, 1 in a million is impossibru

 

just imagine how many mobs are killed every day by each player on the entire server.. also remember that 100% loot bonus would pretty much make it 1 in 500k, pretty much everyone has at least a little bit of loot bonus.

 

I cri

 

If I ran a program that has 1 in 700k of giving me the x (mythic) value every second, how long do you think it would take? Lets compare that to the amount of equipment dropped per day and the amount of mythic items we have in the span of time when Gavel came out. Now lets throw in some factors, all of mythic weapon range from 70-100? So now we know that people level 70+ are the ones getting mythics. Lets also consider that many players have some loot bonus, so say the average person have a 1/700,000 chance. So now we know that only players level 70+ (which is not the bigger chunk of wynn players...most likely) who are grinding or killing mobs have a 1 in 700,000 chance of getting a mythic. We can also safely assume that we collectively found over 50+ mythics (80% of those mythics have been bought by Snowing). All of which is in the span of less than 2 months. Click this for 1 and 3/4 months and make sure to click once per second (about) and click faster during the hours the servers are most full tell me when you reach 50 successful "YES." https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/24105265/
kglhfdontdodrugsbesafemakesuretochangeyourunderweareveryday!

 

Smartass there are atleast 25 mythics (16 have been found afaik ). Each one of them has a 1 in a million drop chance.
That's already 1 in a 40000 chance of getting a mythic not including loot bonuses.

 

God Dangit I just posted my thread about selling Az

 

;n;

 

You can buy mine...

 

No not how many we've found that exist, I mean how many mythic items we have collected over all

 

Read my post once again. There are 16 discovered not the total ammount of the mythics dropped. I suspect we will discover more.

 

Okay well that's beside the point, in fact that does not mean anything to my claim. It's kind of pointless for you to tell me this...

 

First of all, Salted said it and hes the one that designs mythics so I'm pretty sure he know the probability. Also, you are forgetting that mathematics aren't everything, just because you calculate the amount of mythics that could be collected over time doesnt mean its fixed, more or less are bound to be dropped

 

Between these two posts, I would have to agree is @ashdalf His description and mathematics are well done.
But...

@ThePastryMaster does have a point... maybe. More or less mythical could be dropped a day depending on the XP bonus some people have, how many people are on each day, and if @Salted did create and design the mythics, he would know the drop rate.

And mathematics aren't everything ;-;

 

Ahahahahaah "mathematics aren't everything" you're wrong math is our universe. We are bound by the laws of math and physics, math is everything. Probability doesn't lie, just because there is a chance doesn't mean it is going to happen. In fact probability can be and is averaged. I honestly believe that Salted is making some random estimate 1 in a million is such a huge number, it's just not possible for so many mythics to be found in such a short amount of time with 1 in a million. Unless Jumla or Salted show me the code that proves it is 1 in a million I will not change my opinion

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also I barely used any math, I kind of used common sense...

 

This I agree with. If mythics were 1 in a million (2 in a million... get the reference anyone?) than how is it possible that out of 50 item bombs, 5 or 8 mythics were found? And wasn't this supposed to be an auction thread? This turned into an argument about probability and math...
WHICH IS EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!

 

Yes, math is everything (I worded that badly), but math can only PREDICT the outcomes, not determine them. And you have to consider the fact that there is loot bonus, loot chests (4 tiers)

And explain the possibility of how one of my friends got two mythics from two different tier TWO chests.

 

And now that I actually look at the image... I personally think it's not worth 2 stacks of LE. Or 1 stack of LE.

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And we are not arguing about math anymore. We are just trying to argue that a mythic isnt 1 in a million drop chance

 

kek, ask Salted about the probability (thats my arguement btw)

 

Why are Casino and Hotel managers in Vegas so rich? Games, because of gambling, because people believe in "luck." It's all probability, if you know probability, you know the outcome, yes it's possible to roll a 7 on the 100 sided-die, but is that a reasonable and logical gamble to play? No, same with this, yes, it's possible that maybe all those people were extremely and impossibly "lucky;" however it is more logical and reasonable to say that this is not the case.

 

@ashdalf @joshua123_4 @ThePastryMaster
Stop it. You guys don't understand.
ALL Mythics together do not have a 1 in a million chance of dropping.
EACH mythic has a 1 in a million chance of dropping.
So to get a mythic item (any mythic item) you'd have to get 40000 drops ( meaning they have about 1 in 40000 chance of dropping ) there are about 16 different mythics found . I suspect there are atleast 25 though. so 25 times this 1 in a million chance is equal to 1 in a 40000 chance.
So you have 1 in 40k chance to get a mythic but 1 in a million chance of getting an Az for example.
Which makes perfect sense since if we really had a 1 in a million chance of getting a mythic item we would have found about 2 already.
Take a look:
Let's say there are about 500 players above lvl 70 on atleast one class , and let's say each one of them gets 100 drops a day. Gavel has been out for about 40 days.
500x100x40/40000=50
Makes perfect sense if u ask me , so stop with the useless debate and with spamming me with alerts.