Guide Horse's Breeding Prices

Hi I'm sure each one of you tried to buy/sell a horse and thought "oh, that's really expensive for a horse".
I'm here to bring out the truth, horses are sold really cheaply compared to their average breeding cost.

As we all know the possible outcome of a breeding horses are: 20%-successful 50%-getting the same tier 30%-getting a lower tier, together with the price of a brown horse (24eb) we can calculate the breeding cost of all horses.
If you're interested in the math you're welcome to pick in the spoilers.

Spoiler: Formula

PL - the price of a lower tier horse

PS - the price of the horse you are starting with

PU - the price of the upgraded horse, this is what we want to calculate

CL - the chance the breeding will fail and result in a downgraded horse (0.3)

CS - the chance the breeding will fail and result in the same horse (0.5)

CU - the chance the breeding will be successful and result in an upgraded horse (0.2)

2*PS = CL*PL+CS*PS+CU*PU

if you prefer it in words:

breeding two horses worth PS will result in CL horses downgraded that are worth PL, CS horses that are the same that are worth PS and CU horses that cost PU.

we can isolate PU and plug in the chances (as they are constant for all horses):

PU = (2*PS-CL*PL-CS*PS)/CU

PU = (2*PS-0.3*PL-0.5*PS)/0.2

Spoiler: Black Horse

PU = (2*PS-0.3*PL-0.5*PS)/0.2
PU = (2*24eb-0.3*24eb-0.5*24eb)/0.2 = 144eb = 2le and 16eb

Black = 2le and 16eb

Spoiler: Chestnut Horse

PU = (2*PS-0.3*PL-0.5*PS)/0.2
PU = (2*144eb-0.3*24eb-0.5*144eb)/0.2 = 1044eb = 16le and 20eb

Chestnut = 16le and 20eb

Spoiler: White Horse

PU = (2*PS-0.3*PL-0.5*PS)/0.2
PU = (2*1044eb-0.3*144eb-0.5*1044eb)/0.2 = 7614eb = 118le and 62eb

White = 118le and 62 eb

Spoiler: vip horse merchant prices

Black Horse
1le

Chestnut Horse
PU = (2*64eb-0.3*64eb-0.5*64eb)/0.2 = 444eb = 6le and 60eb
chestnut costs 444eb or 6le and 60eb

White Horse
PU = (2*444eb-0.3*64eb-0.5*444eb)/0.2 = 3234eb = 50le and 34eb
white costs 3234eb or 50le and 34eb

Edit: thanks to @Kepler_17c the info is now on the wiki! Check it out here!

If you have any questions/corrections to make about my calculations you are more than welcome to post them.​

 

eheheheehe and here i am selling white horses for 76le

 

Behold, the power of math!

Edit: Why TF is everyone liking this?

 

@kolleden and I posted something similar, but about the nether armor. This math calculations tell you what a horse is worth, but nobody will sell/buy a white horse for 118le... koll and I tried to tell everyone what Enchanted Nether Armor is actually worth, but noone cared. Dont expect too much of these calculations cuz player market changes a lot. Just saying, but nice math skills tho

 

hes right,
throughout wynncraft a market system was made... and as we see its reallly hard to change. only the bigger things change it like: did the item get duped, will it be removed, will it return, how much of it exists. and unless that happends, white will be 64 le, chestnut will be 20-15 le, black will be 2-3 le and brown will be 24 eb. thats not going to change any time soon

 

Well the reason horses are so cheap is because of the vip town horse merchant, but every market works by supply and demand. Wynn is expecting a huge increase in the number of players when gavel comes out (there was an increase just after cubedcon that filled every server to the brim for more than a week) as more people will want to buy horses two things will happen.
A) the prices would go up by supply and demand
B) players would tempt to breed their own horses (thus increasing the price)

 

for a super long time this topic is on my head, and its mostly about you A. argument:
for a long time i was following the marketing on many rare collectables or item that are hard to get and well... no, it doesnt work the way you say.
I belive that this way should work, i really do, but if you still didnt notice the price for every item in the game has never changed because of demand, it changed only because the big things: dupes, number of items existing, or is it still achieveable. thats why every collectable just... gets a price and sticks with it, and the only way the broken market changes is when a better item coems up, or item returns from the dead, supply and demand is the way it should work but quite francly nobody has the time or the will to do the thinking on how much the item is worth. so unless we get a tier 5 horse on gavel, horses wont change. sorry

 

Bumpity bump

 

white horse isn´t that much.. its more like 50-55 LE !
The solution is correct but that isn´t the market price!

 

That's because vip's used to buy black horses for 1le (under half of its breeding worth) that makes a white made from vip blacks worth around 50-60le

The statistics are correct, I tested them myself.
First try 18le made one Chestnut
Second try 15le bought one Chestnut
Third try 15le bought one Chestnut
Fourth try 17 le bought one Chestnut
If people sold like this the economy wouldn't crash, Chestnut horses are sold just a bit less than their breeding price so selling them at more would be great and it will encourage players to breed.
About the white horses, I don't know if the content team did the math but paying 118le for a horse is a bit too much. But that's because we got used to seeing it everywhere. And the truth is that most people who could afford a white now could probably still buy it with the new price.

 

I'm sorry to say but these are very under and over priced! Real pricing here!
Black: 1.5 LE
Chestnut: 20-30 LE
White: 40-60 LE

 

Not sorry to say this but the ACTUAL price is this.....
Black: 1-2 LE
Chestnut: 10-15 LE
White: 40-70LE

 

Okay haha I trust you on stuff like this. Becuase you are actually "semi" wynn famous

 

Btw blacks are sold lately at 2le and the price is going up.

What about me? ;w;
I'm a notable member...

 

that one guy knows you so yes.

 

Well your a popular youtuber, but a lot of people don't know that.

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Hey has over 2000 subs.

 

I had more than 5k views on just one of my threads.
and comparing the forums to YouTube isn't really fair is it?

 

Okay I'm sorry for saying he is popular

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You just cant compare math to horses

 

no one is.

 

you did