Real Horses' Worth

I did the math (shocker)
With brown horses worth 24 EB
Black horses are with 1LE and 8 EB
Chestnut horses are with 7LE and 56 EB
White horses are with 57LE and 24 EB

This is with the given chances of the Wynncraft Wiki

You're welcome

 

https://forums.wynncraft.com/threads/horses-breeding-prices.90224/ ?

 

These values are also already on the Wiki

 

i'm not too sure it deserves the spoiler tag, but anyway horses won't be getting sold at this price because of the risk of breeding anyway

 

You pay more for new horses cos they take so long to breed. It's added value through convenience.

 

What's your math?

 

These aren't the correct prices tho

 

semt weird to me, but my idea stands anyway

 

So Which is correct this thread or your old one?

 

Pretty sure it's Yuno's

sorry bud, incorrect already. With 10 browns giving you 4 browns and 1 black on average, the black is worth 6 browns each, not 3.

 

My thread

 

I didn't say thank you

 

With the given chance (20% to level up) and 1536 emeralds (24eb) for a brown horse, we have
1536 x 100/20 = 7680 emeralds for a black horse (slightly less than 2 le)
7680 x 100/20 = 38400 emeralds for a chestnut horse (about 9.5 le)
38400 x 100/20 = 192000 emeralds for a white horse (about 47 le)
However, we have 30% chance of downgrading the horse when we are breeding chestnut or black ones, therefore we have
7680 x 2 - 1536 = 13824 emeralds loss when downgraded during breeding black horses
38400 x2 - 7680 = 69120 emeralds loss when downgraded during breeding chestnut horses
Since all of the chances can be divided by 10, we can divide the breeding steps into 10 parts, where the 9th breed of the same tier horses is the successful one and the 6,7,8th breed of them are downgraded. (we also assume that it won't downgrade after the 9th breed of certain horses, so the calculation won't be complicated)
1536 x 9 = 13824 E for a black (less than 3.5 le)
13824 x 5 + (13824 x 2) x 3 (13824 E for a black, also the same amount of emeralds loss of downgrading the black) + 13824 = 13824 x 12 (all multiplier added) = 165888 E for a chestnut (40.5 le)
165888 x 12 (same as above) = 1990656 E for a white horse (486 le, 7.5 stacks of le)
The data above isn't even the maximum amount of emeralds needed for the breeding, because there are assumption. The maximum is undefined because there are chances of downgrading the horse, resulting a cycle of brown horses, breed 9 times, black horses, breed some times (chances of downgrading > chances of upgrading so) then brown horses again. So I had this assumption to prevent this vicious cycle.
The minimum amount of emeralds needed for a white horses are,
1536 x 2 (upgrade) x 2 (upgraded to chestnut) x 2 (then white) = 12288 E (exactly 3 le)
Therefore, the range of amount of breeding a white horse is 3 le to 7.5 stacks of le, which is really like gambling, but I guess no one will use 7.5 stacks for a single white horse right
For the average amount of breeding horses, I mentioned it in the very beginning, but I guess 90% of the people can't get these horses because of the chance of downgrading horses, so don't tell me that te data is fake or something, because assumption is used in it.

 

What are you even talking about

 

If thats true I would get ton of money just by breeding horses but I actually never got profit from breeding lol

________________________________

Read this

 

Nuh-uh, sorry.
Having a 1 in 5 chance of breeding a black from two browns does not make the black 5 times as valuable as the brown. Keep in mind, you need 5 pairs of brown horses to breed a black, so that's 5*2 = 10 horses. However, you are also refunded 4 brown horses from the failed breeding attempts. 10 - 4 = 6. A black is worth 6 browns.

Also, here's an attempt at visualisation (the math is the same as @Yuno F Gasai 's) for people uncomfortable with processing lines of math:

Spoiler: Images

Breeding a BLACK: Breeding a CHESTNUT: Breeding a WHITE: ​

​

 

Great info graphs, it'll be great if you could post them on my thread also!

 

So instead of doing all the math I just put together a crappy program. Obviously, it's not 100% consistent with theoretical math, however putting in ~10,000 simulations or so consistently gets around ~120 LE per horse, the consensus generally agreed upon and not the single stack you've proposed.

Here's the program link: https://repl.it/@TheGreatPiggy/Horse-Breeding

Also, it's not nice to post false spoilers :P

 

I'm sorry, but I'm closing this thread. Your mathematics is full of holes. If you want to know the actual cost of breeding horses, with the current prices of brown horses, and the current odds of breeding, you need to take a look at Yuno's thread. Those numbers have been validated by multiple people who understand probability quite well.
/CLOSED - DISINFORMATION