Guide [java] Wynncraft Horse Breeding Calculator

Hey there! I just made a forum account! Hai! I'm RojoM! <insert cheesy 5 paragraph long introduction here>

Anyway, I coded a wynncraft horse simulator in Java using the probability values on the wiki (up-tiering a horse is a 20% chance, same-tiering is 50%, down-tiering is 30%). What it does is it simulates the process of buying brown horses when needed, breeding same-tiered horses together, and repeating that process over and over until it reaches a certain objective number of X-tier horse. This allows me to brute force the question of "How much LE does it take to make each type of horse?", running an extremely high number of trials to get an accurate average cost. To do this, I ran trials in which I had the simulator attempt to make 1,000,000 of each type of horse (separately from each other, of course) while keeping track of how many brown horses it bought. At the end, it would print the results, including the cost. With 10,000,000 horses as an objective, there was an extremely low cost difference between trials.
Tl;dr - Made a java program that simulates the buying and breeding of horses to reach an objective amount of tier-X horses. Brute-forced (10,000,000 as the objective number) the average cost of each tier of horse.

The results -
In order to breed 10000000 tier 1 horses, 59981900 brown horses had to be bought.
This means an average of 5.99819 brown horses were needed per horse, or 143.95656 EB per horse.
This is equal to 2.24932125 LE

In order to breed 10000000 tier 2 horses, 435046601 brown horses had to be bought.
This means an average of 43.5046601 brown horses were needed per horse, or 1044.1118424 EB per horse.
This is equal to 16.3142475375 LE

In order to breed 10000000 tier 3 horses, 3173297785 brown horses had to be bought.
This means an average of 317.3297785 brown horses were needed per horse, or 7615.914684 EB per horse.
This is equal to 118.9986669375 LE

Now, obviously, this is very different from the calculations of @Yuno F Gasai's on their thread (can't link it because new forum account. Can someone link it below?). There is one difference between what we did, however. His post calculated the value of the horse by subtracting the EB values of the other horses that were bred. Instead, in my program, I was breeding the other "spare" horses together, like a normal wynncraft player would do while breeding horses. I feel his calculations oversimplified that aspect by simply giving those "spare" horses an EB value even though normally those would be bred as well. At the same time, I don't blame him. Trying to calculate probability while having the entire complexity of breeding the spare horses is a headache, to say the least. I've debugged my code and made sure a variety of things are not skewing my calculations, and I can't find any bugs on my side. I'll post it below to let you guys look at it and check for bugs.

Aaaaaand yep there was a bug. Calculations have been fixed and now they are within tolerance of Yuno's values.

Tl;dr - Made a java program that simulates horse breeding. Got different (higher) costs for each tier of horse compared to @Yuno F Gasai 's calculations. There is a fundemental difference between how we calculated the value, with him simplifying the prescence of "spare" horses to an EB value rather than breeding them, which might be why. My code is in the below post.

Feel free to check for bugs or oversights and please tell me if you find any!
Rojo
PS. Refering to Yuno as a "him" because that's what his forum profile says.
PPS. I don't expect this to change the economy at all. I just wanted to post this because I feel it's an interesting finding.

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Alrighty, here's the code! It's been commented in order to make it more understandable.

Code:

public class WynnCraftHorseBreedingSimulator {
    public static int[] breedHorses(int tier, int[] horses) { //Method that breeds the horses. Uses Java.Math's RNG to generate randomness. Returns new array of horses
        double RNG = Math.random();
        horses[tier] -= 2;
        if (RNG < 0.2) { //For a 20% chance, add one up-tiered horse
            horses[tier + 1] += 1;
        }
        if (RNG >= 0.2 & RNG < 0.7) { //For a 50% chance, add one same-tiered horse
            horses[tier] += 1;
        }
        if (RNG >= 0.7) { //For a 30% chance, add one down-tiered horse. If the horse is already tier 0, add another tier 0 horse.
            if (tier == 0) {
                horses[tier] += 1;
            } else {
            horses[tier - 1] += 1;
            }
        }
        return horses; //Return the new arrangement of horses
    }
    public static void main(String[] args) {
        //Initializing variables. Array horses is an array with a value of {brown, black, white, chestnut}.
        int[] horses = {0,0,0,0};
        //Keeps track of how many horses have been bought. THis integer is known for going higher than int's maximum, so I changed it to a long to make sure if won't go negative.
        long brownHorsesBought = 0;
        //Which horse is the objective? (0 for brown, 1 for black, 2 for chestnut, 3 for white)
        int targetHorse = 1;
        //How many of this horse do you want?
        int objectiveNum = 10000000;
        while (horses[targetHorse] < objectiveNum) { //While the number of horses you have is below the objective, keep breeding
            for (int i = targetHorse - 1; i >= 0; i--) { //Goes from the objective tier down, breeding horses using the above method
                if (horses[i] >= 2) {
                    horses = breedHorses(i, horses);
                }
            }
            if (horses[0] < 2) { //If there are less than 2 brown horses, buy horses and update the brownHorsesBought int accordingly
                brownHorsesBought += 2 - horses[0];
                horses[0] = 2;
            }
        }
        //Now that the program is done, write the results into console. First line is number of horses need. Second is averaging. Third is price in LE and EB.
        System.out.println("In order to breed " + objectiveNum + " tier " + targetHorse + " horses, " + brownHorsesBought + " brown horses had to be bought.");
        System.out.println("This means an average of " + (double) brownHorsesBought / objectiveNum + " brown horses were needed per horse, or " + (double) 24 * brownHorsesBought / objectiveNum + " EB per horse.");
        System.out.println("This is equal to " + (double) 24 * brownHorsesBought / (objectiveNum * 64) + " LE");
    }
}

EDIT: Bug fixed at 4:53pmPST on 4-21. Improper conditions for when to make a horse of the same tier (essentially giving it a 0% chance of happening). Code and calculations replaced with new ones. Thanks @motoki1!

 

@Yuno F Gasai kek

 

this is like the first thread ever that contains an actual code

 

I was looking at the code improvising a smart and educated face, trying to avoid reading the comments to the lines, but then remember I only could code plugins for bukkit following the guides on youtube, and it's kinda sad.
Good job, also thank you for the code, I probably have a personal use for it, opensource ftw

 

Here I was thinking I was the only forums member that knew java.

 

Rip dreams

 

For anyone who can't speak maths

TL;DR White horse is a f*cking lot

 

lol I made my white horse with 5 LE and a few smart trades

 

Ayyy you aren't alone! :D

 

Shouldn't this part be:
if(RNG >= 0.2 & RNG < 0.7)
?

Other than that, your code is beautiful :3

 

Yep. There's the bug!
*cries* I checked that method so many times whyyyyyy *facepalm*
Recalculating values now. Thanks!

 

i didnt

 

well den
I thought of doing this but was too lazy :P

great job

 

Wait. This is Java though. You need two && signs in order to use logical-AND. A single & is a bitwise-AND.

Idk it may not make a difference in this case

 

is it just that thinks that the // explanation is too excessive

 

oh boy what a way to start the morning

https://forums.wynncraft.com/threads/horses-breeding-prices.90224/ there ya go

@Kepler_17c @Szei @YuuuuSama did something similar to you with a program.

tier 2*
I got 2.25le on my thread

I got 16.3125le on my thread

I got 118.96875le on my thread

as I actually calculated the prices instead of averaging the prices of a lot of breeding operations my prices are more accurate

we did the same thing, the only difference is that I didnt have a breeding program, the subtracted prices on my thread act as the breed again phase.

refer to me however you like

 

Good job fam.
Now release the api for further open source wynncraft horse breeding computation engine development

 

I heard & and && works the same.

 

In this context, both work in the same manner.

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Yeah, once I found the bug and corrected it our prices were extremely close. I greyed out the text about how our prices conflicted and bolded the part about the bug and how our prices were within tolerance. So yeah. My program now confirms your work. :D

________________________________

Try having a better PhD :3

 

well, you gave me a reason to revive my thread.
thanks!