You Know This Server's Math Makes No Sense

So if I have 29 brown horses, then what are my chances at getting a black horse? Because I managed to combine them all and then ended up with 0 black horses.

 

Its called chance? Think its like a 20% chance to get a higher horse.

 

20% chance to get a higher horse.

I had 21 combinations in total, so 21 x .2 = 4.2

So that means 4 black horses, mathematically.

This server says 0.

 

According to the wiki, these are the horse breeding chances:

 

its a 20% chance it doesn't stack up meaning you just got unlucky next time you should think if gambling is a good idea before you gamble.

 

I decided to take my chances because I didn't think with that many brown horses I wouldn't get any black horses. This is beyond unlucky if you ask me.

 

.8 chance of failing a breed

.8^21 chance of failing 21 breeds

Results are a 0.9% chance of what happened happening in your situation, that's pretty unlucky but not ridiculous. Bound to happen to someone after thousands playing on this server.

 

You need to listen in math lesson !

 

>Breeding horses
Just buy them on the trade market. It's easier and cheaper unless you have insane luck.

 

To check if the outcome is plausible, use Chi Squared before asking about the odds.

 

WELL.... there is a better way of predicting the odd of a outcome.

Look at the formula:

Pascal's#((Probability of success)^Number of Successes) * (Probability of Failure)^Number of Failures)

in this situation the formula, if you desire 4 black horses, would look something like this:

23751 * (0.2)^4 * (0.8)^25

This case the answer is 0.1435659857

To put simply the odd of getting four black horses out of 29 ties is about 14%

You were fortunate enough to be the 86% chance. I recommend you don't step under ladders or go on a plane.

In fact with these chances I recommend you hide in your bed. But I don't know how luckily you could be so it may be safer to stand in one place.

 

Clearly you have no clue what RNG is

 

I'm not alone in my logic

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Don't get me started with expected values.... You got me started.

We can make a table of the values and the chances of occurring like so:



Now we multiply the values and the chances together:



The last step is adding the chances to get the final result:



What does the -0.1 mean? Well it, and i'm pretty sure that you can guess, that the chances of getting the higher tier horse is not ideal. In fact you are more likely to lose a horse the more they play this game, rather than win a black horse.

Moral of the story? Become a archer/ warrior/ mage and spam their spells. Or get the buff on the archer escape spell to go sonic fast.

 

To be honest, the thing I like about this the most is that you weren't even the one that made the thread.
But yeah, I know the chances are completely against you. This is why I don't breed horses, and I bet at least 90% of the wynn population will agree with that statement.

 

That's not how probability works, and you're exhibiting gambler's fallacy, where you think that just because something is likely to happen, it is guaranteed to happen.
You're doing the math equation wrong, P(notGettingABlackIn21Breeds) = .8^21 = ~1%. This is definitely possible, and is mathematically bound to happen eventually. You just happened to get unlucky.

 

Yes curse my a+ in the final year of basic math and a great motivation to prove my superiority...

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I too agree with that last statement

 

Some of you should read @Yuno F Gasai 's thread on horse breeding, especially the OP. It might help to clarify some things.

 

Oh god another math debate

 

YOU ARE UNLUCKY!!!!!! :[

 

20% chance=/=20% of horses become black