Community Event Mythic Head Count

A long time ago in this thread I mathed out the number of loot chests necessary to get a mythic to be roughly ~5300 (see thread for more information). What I didn't know is that another thread counted up the mythics from community members a few months earlier and the number of chests they opened to get an average from a sample of players where they also got 5,527 chests / 1 mythic. After seeing that I realized my work might actually have been accurate! With that, I'd like to try the same thing, but this time with mythics from MOB DROPS. So, everyone bring together your totals on mythic item drops and mobs killed and allow me to test the .000007 math on mythics again.

To participate simply submit your mythic count and total mobs slain. I'll start:

@NicBOMB 1 (Cataclysm), Dropped at 66k Mobs

Extra Information:
Try and list total mobs killed at the time of your last drop, as that's what I'm measuring. Example: I recorded my mob kills when I got the mythic.
Estimate the number of mobs you've killed that don't drop mythics (war mobs and low level enemies) if you can. That also helps.
Even if you don't have the correct total from the time you got the drop, you can still submit your current kill and mythic count regardless. Doesn't have to be perfect ;). We're dealing in extremes, so this was never going to hit the exact probability no matter how nice that'd be.
Mythic count of 0 has no meaning, as 0/x number of kills is still 0. tags
Once I've got about 60 mythics then I'll calculate the probability according to our tallies.

 

wouldnt this be inaccurate tho because war mobs count as mobs killed

 

Ik, it's not going to be perfect, so I'm going to try and account for it later. Getting that information is still useful.

 

Yeah, it'd also be pretty inaccurate for me.
If you judge it purely based on my current stats, then it's Pure and Freedom with a total of 344k mob kills.
However, that is extremely inaccurate since I have deleted and made so many characters. If I had to guess, if you included my deleted characters, I would be at around 450-500k or higher in mob kills.

 

Plus, some mobs have no chance at all of dropping a mythic because they are too low level... Although this probably doesn't consist of a lot of mobs though, it doesn't take much to get to mythic levels
Anyway I think with enough data it will become a bit more accurate however

 

Yes. More data points, greater accuracy.

The point is not to get the expected probability, it's to see what currently exists and measure that.

 

1 Ignis at 220,000. Around 40k at least of those where in-war mobs. Just an estimate though

 

2,500,000 mob kills and no mythics wtfrick

 

I didn’t even know a rough calculation existed... however I think a few other factors would skew the 1/5300 to make it rarer (but with lb my calculation made it lower for a lot of people) Didn’t even remember that I made a thread with theoretical values when I saw this thread at first haha. Quite interesting that they are close though, but sadly uh...
no mythics from mobs and I’m 12 mythics atm (9 were boots ;( ) all from t3 chests so good luck here

 

~120k mobs and hero drop
uh i'd say around like 20000 war mobs at that point, and i really don't know about low level mobs

 

feelsbadman

added another section to extra information

 

arent most of those war mobs tho?

 

yeah id say more than 2 million are, id say maybe 150k to 200k were actually farmed kills for mythics, which i didnt get any, and the other 350k to 400k were gotten when i was leveling classes or playing for the first time years ago

 

2 mythics about 2 months apart, total mob kills at the time (I think) was below 300k

 

751,561 mobs killed.
0 mythics found.

Unsure of the number that was low levels and of war mobs, so I'm sorry on that front.

 

a friend of mine has like 185k mobs right now and found 1 mythic, idk hom many warmobs, but i think like 15-20k
i have 125k mobs with no mythic from mobs, only from chests

 

193k, 0 mythics from mobs

 

Total Mobs Killed 147,102 | (>than 1k from war) - 0 Mythics
Total Chests Looted 13,660 | 3 Mythics (Strati, 2x Divzer)

I can say that since lootruns are nerfed i think more ppl will get Mythics from Mobs now

 

58,391 total mobs killed (-1k low lvl mobs, -300 war mobs) - no mythics
3,588 chests looted - no mythics

 

87,365 mobs killed (I have one deleted class but that was entirely pre-Gavel) and 5,210 chests looted, no mythics.