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Item Drop Chance Tables

Discussion in 'Questions' started by NicBOMB, Dec 5, 2018.

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  1. NicBOMB

    NicBOMB Maker of Builds | Lurks on Forums | 1 Mythic Found CHAMPION

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    Will item drop chances ever be released? I don't know if anyone has asked before, but if there is a table with all the drop rates available, I'd be interested in utilizing that for... things (I'm a nerd *pushes up glasses*).
     
    Druser likes this.
  2. Altakar

    Altakar former 1000+ day counter moth Item Team

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    I feel like it can be by buying a ton of item bombs and keeping track of the rates. I estimate that for legendaries, the chance is roughly 1%, though
     
  3. NicBOMB

    NicBOMB Maker of Builds | Lurks on Forums | 1 Mythic Found CHAMPION

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    The drop rates for items should be accessible and given the upcoming update, drop rates for at least different item types would be nice. The update is intended to bring stability to the market. Not knowing how likely you are of getting the items you want is also part of what makes items like mythics so far overpriced. I had an old thread where I said:
    assuming each slot in the chest has a chance of containing a mythic, that'd be 27 (the number of slots in an individual chest) times our chance for getting a single mythic.
    27(x*.000007) = 1 [where x is the number of chests still. Also NCR of 1 is always going to be the number of chests so I simplified it out of the equation]
    x = (1/27)/.000007
    x = 5291.00529 chests or exactly 1 27th of 142888 (142888/27 = 5292.14814815 is 1 off of our estimate which makes sense since I rounded to get 142888)
    What does this mean: If every slot in a chest has exactly the same chance of containing a mythic (1/7 million) and there are 27 slots in a minecraft chest, then the chance of getting 1 mythic from 5292 is exactly %100. So The magical number that you *should* be expecting a mythic is 5292 DON'T BE SURPRISED IF YOU DON'T GET ONE BY THEN! Again all of the above calculations are theoretical. If everyone in wynncraft were sampled for the number of mythics they found, then that number was devided by the total number of chests opened in level ranges that contain mythics we'd "expect" it to normalize around ~5300-ish chests. Empirically (in practice) as an individual wynncraft player, you will likely vary greatly from that mean value. Again, RNG will give you a mythic when it feels like it. This mean value is the average of everyone in wynn, and not representative of outliers like myself, who found a mythic with less than 1k chests opened. We also don't have the exact drop chances for every mythic. We already know that every item in wynn has its own specific chance of dropping, therefore 1/7 million is likely not the exact value for every mythic, and shouldn't be taken as the true probability of mythic items appearing in chests. I don't think those chances will ever be released, and without all of the information on every mythic's drop chance, we cannot accurately predict the true '%100 chance' of getting a mythic in x number of chests.
    We know that there is a lot of bs on the wiki surrounding the drop chances which simplifies the games mechanics which I reluctantly used here. I'd like to explore them and improve them, or at least inform people about them properly by getting the real information.
     
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