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Game Mechanics Game Bug With Mythics?

Discussion in 'Bug Reports' started by mushroomhoues, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    Hello! I've been running loot runs for a about 5 months now with the goal of obtaining a mythic. Unfortunately, I have not gotten one yet, and I'm beginning to think it has less to do with random chance and more to do with some underlying aspect of wynncraft. Looking over other people's chances of receiving mythics, the average person gets a mythic in maybe 3,000 chests, and conservatively 4,500. Meanwhile, I have opened over 25,000 chests with no such luck. Being over 5 times off the average count, I looked into mob kills for perhaps being the reason I have not yet found a mythic. However, given the 10%-20% chance to even drop an item, then for it to chance an equip-able item and not a potion, powder, emerald, THEN for it to be a mythic offers an almost negligible chance of finding mythics from mob kills. These are some of the statistical pieces I used for these points.

    Mythics found- __3____11____1____ 3____1_____1____1_____4_____3____1 ____0

    Chests opened- 4,400_3,700_2,100_18,700_2,300_2,400_6,000_29,600_11,200_4,100_25,300
    (rough amount)

    It doesn't add up. Even when compared to the most unlucky player, I am still have over 3 times as worse luck as them. My last idea was to ask the wynncraft community and moderators over whether or not such a bug exists that prevents certain players from finding mythics, or if there is an issue with the servers in general. Either way, I feel cursed.
    ---------------------------------------------------------
    Update: My math was wrong. I forgot about Poisson Distributions. I was wrong about using normalcdf. Doing the new calculations of e^-6.372 my p-value would be 0.0017. So for me to not get a mythic in 31860 chest is .17%. Regardless I would still like staff to look into this to see if the bug exists. Shoutout to @Tekenen for reminding me of the Poisson Distribution
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019
  2. Altakar

    Altakar I count days for some reason QA

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    Luck is a bitch. That's it.
     
  3. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    To further secure my points aforementioned in the other post, I decided to use statistics to prove those statements.

    First, I sampled 30 people who have gotten mythics. I recorded how many loot chest they've opened, how many mythics they've obtained, and the average number of chests they'd have to open to receive a mythic. Here's a graph of that.
    [​IMG]

    I then found the mean mythics per loot chest for all of the samples which was 3635.1 loot chests per mythic. Using that number I found the standard deviation at 1771.4 loot chests. With the mean, standard deviation, and my own values to input, I could calculate my P-value and see how far off my random chance really was (P-value, simply put, is the statistical probability of something happening). In this case its finding the statistical probability of not finding a mythic in 25900 loot chests.
    After plugging in the values and proving it's normally distributed, I found the normalcdf in a calculator by punching in normalcdf(25900,1000000,3635.1,1771.1), resulting in a P-value of 1.6X10^-36. This value basically means I have one in 1.6 quintillion odds of not getting a mythic in 25900 loot chests.
    If you can't tell 1 in 1.6 quintillion is basically impossible to happen. There's a higher chance for me to win the lottery (1 in 14 million) than for this sort of thing to occur. So please, don't dismiss this as just terrible luck and move on. All I want is a confirmation that this sort of occurrence isn't a bug
     
  4. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    Has staff looked into this yet?
     
  5. Triactic

    Triactic On The Spectrum : 3 mythics found

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    To be fair you could just be getting super unlucky lol, even if statistics suggest that you probably should have found a mythic by now. (You might have also found mythics and not picked them up by accident, which would be worse than death).
     
  6. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    It still doesn't negate the fact that I found proof that there's a bug with mythic drops. I don't know what is causing said bug though. It can range from drop tables to bugged ratios to something with my account. Which is why I'm asking staff to look into it.
     
  7. Altakar

    Altakar I count days for some reason QA

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    Worth noting that your data doesn't seem to include people who have opened a lot of chests and still don't have mythics yet, so your data probably has some sort of bias. I don't think you can consider that an average player has found a mythic at all, and when you include those players, the data will look much more reasonable (I think the community assumes that it's 5k chests on average).
     
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  8. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    In my data I was looking for the average number of loot chests per mythic. So I couldn't include those without mythics. Even at the assumed mean of 5000 chests (and rough standard deviation of 2440) and update # of chest I found (27000) my point still holds up. Plugging normalcdf(27000,1000000,5000,2440) results in the P-Value of 9.8X10^-20, which is still in the quintillions. Meaning that even with the community mean of lootchests per mythic I'm still at impossible odds of 1/98000000000000000000
    This shows concrete evidence that there's a bug at works here. Which is why I would like staff to look into it.
     
  9. A Human

    A Human Definitely not an alien. QA Builder

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    This could be something relating to how you are lootrunning/opening loot chests.
    Loot chests won’t give you a mythic if you are outside the required level range, or if nearby mobs are. They also give you less loot and so are less likely to contain a mythic if you open them right after they respawn.

    If you aren’t doing any of those things it’s likely that you’re just getting really unlucky, but it could be a bug.
    ________________________________
    Also, could you link your Stats page (from the Wynn website or Wynndata)?
     
  10. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    https://wynncraft.com/stats/player/MrMushoom
    I do my loot runs in Rodoroc and Sky Islands.
    So I think the level range thing would be in my favor
     
  11. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    Is there a way for staff to look into this?
     
  12. nicktree

    nicktree Big Chungus' Number 1 Fan! VIP Modeler GM

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    Creator Karma:
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    Sorry, getting a mythic in the end relies a lot on luck. I can't think of any reason why there would be a bug prevented you from getting mythics.
     
  13. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    Probably because its a bug that has never been seen before. Considering I'm the only person to open over 30,000 chests and has yet to received a mythic. Is there anyway to test if the bug exists?
     
  14. nicktree

    nicktree Big Chungus' Number 1 Fan! VIP Modeler GM

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    Don't think so
     
  15. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    I think there're plenty of ways to test it. First would be to test if its even possible for me to get a mythic. If I can't (and so far I haven't after 30,00 chests) then it most likely bugged. What could be bugged is the random number table and/or item ratios. Second we could test if its an account thing. I have been playing this game for about 5 years and have change my username. Maybe one of those things have corrupted my IG data. Everyone with 30,000+ lootchests but me has received multiple mythics. Like I said in previous posts. The data shows that I should have received at least a few mythics. But I have received zero mythics and why is that? Simply because there's a problem (aka a bug) within the game that is only affecting me. Again, which is why I would like staff to look into it.
     
  16. Selvut283

    Selvut283 Circadian rhythm stuck on Tokyo time Staff Member Moderator ♪ Music Item Team HERO GM

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    I have to insist that you're just unlucky. It's a random chance each time; you could get a mythic on the first mob you kill or the first chest you open, or you could get one on the 100000th chest you open or the millionth mob you kill. It's not a progressively increasing chance per "times-you-don't-get-a-mythic". I've played since the very beginning, and since Gavel I've never found a Mythic either(though I haven't gone out of my way trying to, either.)

    If your loot tables were broken somehow, you wouldn't be receiving any items, or they'd be disappearing, or de-identifying themselves, rather than Mythics not appearing, and this would be a world-side or server-side bug rather than a player-side one.
     
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  17. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    The probability of me being simply "unlucky" is unfathomable. The probability of not getting a mythic in 30,000 chest is 6.3X10^-25 (the math is normalcdf(30000,1000000,5000,2440)). That's 1/6300000000000000000000000. Can you even imagine getting a 1/6.3X10^-25. Its statistically improbable for me to be "unlucky". Which is why I insist staff to actually look into it.
     
  18. Chigo_

    Chigo_ Famous Adventurer HERO

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    It doesn't work like that, the chance of you not getting a mythic in 30k chests is the same as not getting one in 1 chest.
     
  19. mushroomhoues

    mushroomhoues Well-Known Adventurer

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    You have a higher probability of getting a mythic from 30,000 chests compared to only 1 chest. I don't know how you even came to the conclusion that opening 30,000 chest is the same as opening 1 chest.
     
  20. Chigo_

    Chigo_ Famous Adventurer HERO

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    You don't have a higher probability. The chance for finding a mythic is static, meaning that it doesn't add up. Sure there might be a theoretical higher probability but that is just on paper. When the game runs the statistics you end up with the same chance for each chest to have a mythic item inside. When you get a piece of loot it rolls a number to see what rarity it's going to be, the chance of getting a mythic is 1/142857.