[Simulation] Which Lootrun Strategy is Better

So I've recently got back into Wynncraft and really enjoy the official lootruns. After collecting some data trying both the "Sac Stack -> Gambling Beast" strategy and Materialism, I wrote a simulation to see which one allowed you to get mythics faster. Would like community input on if the parameters I used are reasonable.

Strategies Tested
1) Sac Strat -> Gambling Beast
For this strategy I used the following parameters

Spoiler: Sac Strat Params

Code:

# Sourced from official Wynncraft Wiki (avg effective pulls)
PULLS_PER_MYTHIC = 2500

# Sac Strat params
RUN_TYPES = {
    "Regular": {
        "base_pulls": 25,
        "rerolls": 4,
        "sacrifices": 2,
        "time": 20,
        "prob": 1 / 3,
    },
    "Chrono": {
        "base_pulls": 50,
        "rerolls": 4,
        "sacrifices": 2,
        "time": 30,
        "prob": 1 / 3,
    },
    "Warmth": {
        "base_pulls": 25,
        "rerolls": 2,
        "sacrifices": 4,
        "time": 20,
        "prob": 1 / 6,
    },
    "Gambling": {
        "base_pulls": 40,
        "rerolls": 8,
        "sacrifices": 0,
        "time": 40,
        "prob": 1 / 6,
    },
}

SAC_RATES = {0: 0, 1: 0.5, 2: 0.75, 3: 0.825, 4: 0.9375}

I basically classified 4 types of runs, regular runs (no Chrono or Warmth Devourer), runs with Chrono, runs with Warmth Devourer, and Gambling Beast. I ran a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 trials which resulted in 270 minutes or 4.5 hours.

2) Materialism
For this strategy I used the following parameters

Spoiler: Materialism Parameters

Code:

"""
Averaged across 10 mythics I've gotten (using dry boxes from Wynntils)
This is specifcially accounting for >180% LB and >15% LQ

Also all of this data is considering Molten Heights for Idol Warrior
"""
CHESTS_PER_MYTHIC = 390

# Materialism Strat params
P_MATERIALISM_RUN = (
    1 / 3
)  # likelihood that we get the right missions (Hoarder, Materialism, Orphion's Grace)
TIME_PER_MATERIAL_RUN = 120
TIME_PER_MATERIAL_FAIL = (
    15  # dump run as quickly as possible if 2nd mission isn't one of the top three
)
CHESTS_PER_MATERIAL_RUN = (
    260  # assuming we get all missions at chal 20, (20 + 80 * 3) = 260
)

This strategy is a bit slower, averaging around 300 minutes or 5 hours per mythic.

Note that both strategies' timings and probabilities are based purely with Molten Heights as an Idol Palamonk. With Materialism, you need Discoverer and a 12% LQ weapon (via Eyes for All).


Now a lot of these numbers are through my own experiences. I would love to tweak the parameters based on your guys' feedback and am also down to link a GitHub repo where you can try it out if people are interested.

 

That is definitely an interesting result. I would still say materialism edges out sacstacking because it doesn't require as much setup or the loot pool to be good, but the fact that they're so close to begin with is fascinating. In my experience nolifing lootruns over the past 2-3 weeks, they are both very powerful strategies (especially when you get an insane run with either, just did a 3 mythic run with materialism and hoarder which was insane) and are both much more achievable than the next best alternative (equi+cleansing or inner peace which requires an extreme amount of luck to pull off) but materialism feels more fun for me because it's less incremental and is closer to a beefed up version of the original lootrunning gameplay loop.