Media Ranking The Reasons Why Mythic Prices Are Dropping

> "oh no wynncraft has too much inflation! prices are too high!"
> prices fall
> "oh no wynncraft has too much deflation! prices are too low!"

 

I think you may have missed my point entirely.

 

Alright, do you want to tell me your point then?

 

Having to gather thousands of chests in order to find a mythic, statistically speaking, when it is not even a guarantee, is again, luck based. If you can have dry spells that last for tens of thousands of chests, that's luck. If you can get one from a random mob while doing ToA, but not find one in over 10,000 chests? Luck. Kind of like how if you roll a die, statistically.l, you will probably eventually get a six. Rolling a die 10 times gives you a reasonably good chance. But it's still luck, even if rolling the die thousands of times gives you a better chance.

And a system that only is remotely consistent if you spend dozens or hundreds of hours grinding is awful. If you have a large number of hours to sink into a game, I suppose it works for you, but if you have a job or school or something and you don't get a ton of time to play video games? It becomes a "play or grind" scenario. I don't intend or want to spend all my free time for days or weeks or months grinding in the vain hope that I might get an item that I want. I don't think I should just be given the item, I fully understand the reason that the items are rare and why a grind is implemented. But keeping a grind that takes so long just to serve a handful of people with time to waste doesn't make a fun game, it makes a game that's fun for a few and encourages people without a ton of free time to play something else.

 

Yeah that's an issue, extreme inconsistencies are issues, I know because I've experienced maining a character in a fighting game then it getting nerfed and now being considered "good but goddamn is it inconsistent", and its issue is that specific inconsistency in results, turning into a not-so-good character, and this is also the most extreme case of inconsistency in that game

Ok

Yeah I mean I'm not an absolute expert on lootruns, hell I don't know how you guys get to open 2k chests in 5 hours but that is some magic I would like to learn, the smug smiley was completely unnecessary though

But still, my point is, even if 2000 chests isn't that big, a gap of 15 chests from legendaries to 3000 from mythics is too much, I feel like legendary items are too common but mythics are too rare
Like, we can agree on that being a huge gap at least, right?

 

mythics are easy to get at some point
2k chests can look hard to get in the beggining
but after you get adapted to it you can see that 2k chests is nothing
And mythics arent rare
mythics are so ez to get
give some effort and you are happy, and its not a LOT OF EFFORT OMG nah its kinda ez
if you can stay playing a game for more than 4 hours, besides wynn, you can also stay opening chests for more than 4 hours in wynncraft
bye thats what i wanted to say

 

But this isn't even true. I was working full time over the last 6 weeks of the summer, and lootran for maybe an hour on some days. That was nowhere near all my free time. I opened around 5k chests in that time and found 2 mythics. Of course you could say that 2 mythics in 5k chests is super lucky, but with lq it really isn't. My overall mythic average with lq is less than 1 in 2k chests, and almost everyone I know also has a lq mythic average below 2k. Yes, some people will be unlucky, and go on super long dry streaks, but the majority of players lootrunning with lq can find a mythic without spending every waking minute on it.

 

From the sounds of it, you really don’t want any rng at all? Do you prefer if it’s guaranteed in a daily reward at x amount of days? Because that would be very poor for the economy.

Not everyone is finding a mythic after killing 20 mobs in some quest. It happens to a very small percentage of people. Same with finding a mythic after opening 20 loot chests. I went 300k mob kills before finding my first mythic from mobs. That’s just how it is. (Largely due to a lot of those mobs being grind mobs or below mythic level, where I probably rolled mythic rarity a handful of times, but it rerolled to another rarity due to no mythics being in the drop pool)

It’s like opening card packs for whatever card game you’re playing and trying to get a specific mythic rare or whatever. It’s possible, but the chance is low. It’s not rigged in any way. You can still take your other cards and sell them in order to buy the one you want. Same goes for items you find while loot running/mob grinding. Everything holds some value to it.

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Once again, I’m not on any sides with the drama on this thread. Mythic prices are dropping because supply is higher than demand, and less raw le is coming into the game than needed to keep up with high mythic prices. And mythics are not too difficult to find if you spend the time to find them. I can’t imagine going a full 24 hours of playtime, actively loot running or mob grinding without a mythic. It hasn’t happened to me once yet aside from in 2015/2016 when loot running was infinitely less efficient and still developing

 

Why are we talking about Wynncraft as if it's not fun without Mythics?
I would agree that there are some special Mythics such as Warp that are so different from any Legendaries that you can't reach the same playstyle at all, but this is the exception and even though Warp is one of the most expensive Mythics for quite some time now, it's still more or less accessible with a bit of grinding (if you really want to avoid lootrunning then just grind ingredients or whatever for it and buy yourself one) and once you got bored of it you can still trade it for something else.
Most Mythics are just better Legendaries - they don't neccessarily make your game more fun if you obtain then, atleast unless you consider making an already relatively easy game even easier.
I think this makes it pretty clear that you don't need to spend thousands of hours doing monotone activities to be able to experience basically everything the game has to offer.
In the end, it's an MMORPG, it's supposed to be grindy. The endgame basically doesn't offer any original content either way, so you're not even missing a lot.
You're framing Mythics as an incredibly rare item that only a few people have ever seen while there's literally 30 different Stardews on the Trade Market right now...
Of course RNG is the main factor when it comes to finding Mythics, but it isn't pure luck. There are still plenty of ways to increase the chance of finding one - long drystreaks and success are always connected to using the tools available to you better or worse. Opening 2k Chests in 5 hours isn't black magic or only possible for people who already have a lot of money (Warp). If you're not able to get those numbers with a Set that's worth under 1 Stack of LE you're either unexperienced or just not good at the game.

 

lr community starting to look like the guild community with how many long ass, meaningless, and boring paragraphs they can write

 

It seems like a quite a few number of people are falling for the Monte Carlo trap of RNG lol.
Just because something (the positive event) hasn't happened yet even though you know the probability of occurrences (chance of positive event happening) doesn't mean that the chance of you getting the drop (chance of getting the positive event) on the next instance increases (chance of the positive event goes up) because of the existence of previous failures (failure to get a positive result).
If you have a dry spell of 7k chests, that doesn't mean that you have a very high chance of getting a mythic on the next chest. It is the exact same chance as all of your other chests. This is confused with the chance of you getting a dryspell for X number of chests before the events happen, which is rare the larger X is. But just because you have a dryspell doesn't mean the chance of getting a mythic on any particular day increases or decreases.

Similarly, the existence of one person getting lucky or unlucky is not out of the ordinary. If there is a consistent trend that shows a large deviance from what should be happening, then we can infer that something is not quite right. What's the problem with a few outliers? If you want to reduce "RNG" then you reduce the distribution range but you will still have outlier sequences.
Take three flips of a coin. I will guarantee you with great confidence that if you fairly flip the coins and count the number of heads/tails that you will get a significantly smaller number of triple heads and triple tails than otherwise. Might take you a while to get one, and now imagine you give it to your friend and he does it on first try. You both had the same coins and the probability is the same. It's not likely to get a triple heads of tails (should be a 25% chance, probably pascal's triangle 4th rank if I had to guess the pattern) on the first try, but eventually as you toss more and more sets you will get it. Just because you haven't gotten one doesn't mean that you will get it on the next try, it's still the same chance as if you were tossing for the first time.

If we wanted to affirm anything with reasonable confidence outside of throwing out *SELECT DATA POINTS FROM A LARGER SET* as a pseudo proof of talking points, we might need someone with stats.

I have no knowledge/education of actual stats so take this with a grain of salt, but working it out numerically on MatLab works almost as well as knowing the theory, amirite? (jk)
Feel free to correct if I said anything blatantly wrong in my method, I might have messed up the code or something.

Btw I don't lootrun just kinda interesting reading people's statements from a high schooler's perspective.

 

Not at all. I'm simply pointing out that the level of rarity is utterly absurd and prevents a new player, or even a player who doesn't play a lot from finding one statistically, and that's why I'm in favor lower prices.

You are absolutely correct; the game is still very fun without mythics. However, the difference between legendaries and mythics is pretty significant and it generally feels like the game is balanced around mythics. In addition, most mythics don't have a legendary that is similar to them, and given how few good weapons there are endgame, that severely detracts from low budget build creativity. Note: this is absolutely getting better lately with the buffs to unique, but still is an issue. I like the idea of a rare tier of item that you don't just find all the time that is special and rare and valuable, but mythics feel too far in that direction. If they were less of a step up, I'd have less of a problem with it.

 

We're just going in circles at this point. Plenty of us have pointed out that finding mythics isn't hard, its not a "utterly absurd" thing.

 

Yeah but the level of rarity isn't absurd at all imo. Mythics are supposed to feel special, and when you completely that feeling mythics all of a sudden lose their novelty. Not only are mythics not hard to find now, I've noticed that they've already somewhat lost their novelty.

 

I just wanna grill for God's sake

 

Granted. I think that mythics are in a fairly good place right now, or at least a reasonable, which is why I've said I don't think of the current market as a problem. I like the idea that mythics are rare and special, but I much prefer being able to use them to them being "special" items for people willing to put in a lot of time and effort.

 

correct me if I'm wrong here, but cumulative probability does state that it's a higher chance the more chests you open, does it not? Although the chance is fixed per chest, it's less likely overall to not be getting a mythic the more chests you open.

 

The overall chance of getting a mythic ever increases because you are attempting that same fixed chance many more times.
The chance of getting a mythic on that try doesn't actually increase, it's better described as the expectation you'd get one is higher after that many attempts.

So you're both right lol