Desmos Graph For Lootrunning Odds - Google Survey For Data Regarding Experiences.

I recently made a desmos graph (good online program that is useful for making interactive graphs and such) that will show the probability of getting mythic in a loot chest before some amount of loot chests have been looted that is based on one's Loot Bonus and Loot Quality percentages. This takes into account the degradation of the Loot Quality and Loot Bonus modifications as it increases:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qxbwifsgx3

However, the base probability for a mythic being in a chest without any Loot Bonus or Loot Quality modifications is needed to make this as accurate as possible. To calculate this, I have attached a survey for lootrunners to give some information. If you often lootrun, and are willing to fill out this survey, please do. The desmos graph will hopefully be able to provide a method to provide information on lootrunning for those interested in the future, and may a useful resource:

https://forms.gle/roeyM3j6MmDYDMWm7

Degradation curve for Loot Bonus and Loot Quality percentages (x), and chest percentage (y), + approximate asymptotic function, as by the information provided by Salted - for those interested:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/701r8xmfo8

Thank you!

 

glad to have helped with this a bit, get this guy some more data!

 

As an update, I remove the asymptotic function, and replaced the calculation for the Loot Bonus and Loot Quality degradation with a piecewise in Desmos (ie, a if/then/else thing). This will make it 100% accurate, rather than being an approximate value. Additionally, I have set the base value for chests / mythic at 5323 chests, this is based on the survey, and is likely to be at least somewhat accurate, however, with more data, it is apt to change; this is modifiable with the v slider.

This means that this should be generally good for future use. To use it, input your Loot Quality % with the qn slider, and you Loot Bonus % with the bn slider. You will get a graph showing the chance you getting a mythic before x amount of chests.

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qxbwifsgx3

(Be aware of the gambler's fallacy, you are not guaranteed to get 1 every x number of chests, but over time, the average amount of chests per mythic will tend towards x.)