Guide [outdated 7/26/2020] Mythics Price Guide

Sold for 8stx, decent stats, 0 rerolls. Reflects current prices, and that’s the only price to reflect.
If anything actually I should increase the base, but again I’m keeping my estimates broad.
Also keeping amt. of rerolls in mind

 

No that was someone else, but I would have if the auction wasn't rigged lol

Still doesn't explain the price range

 

I sold 2 grims for 13.5 and 14 respectively b4 update
https://imgur.com/7uxvXK0 -14
https://imgur.com/k1WYcTO -13.5

Here's the fatal
https://imgur.com/sjt5Baz
I quicksold it within the day I bought it so chances are I could have gotten more for it

there have been the same like 4 gmas on market for 7.5 and none of them have sold for over a week

 

(collapse is actually pretty epic why would it be that cheap)

 

Thanks! Those are all considered outliers but will increase grim range back to 12 but not higher since the time between the nerf
Will look again at gmas on the market, was why I put it lower at the start as well

 

wrong, ice snake is actually very important for gaia, easily important enough to factor into the price

however

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i feel like as if -raw spell and -spell% should be a semi important factor

because it was buffed, its entirely possible to counter and use spell gaia, spell gaia is actually bad good, and another reason for why 4th spell cost matters

 

Spell Gaia?

 

yeah man, well specifically hybrid. but spell gaia is great. its not a one use wand anymore

 

Agree, but just spell raw (% is tiny base, barely any effect)


added

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updated grandma, looking at the market, grandma dropping

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added Hadal

 

I'd probably change the "semi important" name to "also relevant" for clarity

And top end discos are still ~40

 

I consider those discos to be outliers - 182*lb been on the market for weeks for 31-32 and hasn't sold either. Anything under 190 likely under 35 aswell

Think it is a good idea to change semi important to another term but maybe to even something other than also relevant? Like "significant"?
Could use another poll

 

Landslide vote, added the ">" signs.

Going to add another poll on Semi-Important

edit: not exactly possible looking for a solution..

edit2: mod removed it, going to add the new poll in google form later.

 

Added the new poll!
See it on the thread or here.

 

This "outlier" thing is not going to work, when people check this page and see that the price for an item is from x-y, they'll just assume that y is the highest possible price (as they always have, people don't really read disclaimers). Plus outliers don't really fall far enough away to change the price to the degree that they should be ignored. Ex. there are plenty of discos with 190+ that go for more than 35

 

It has always been this way - mythics exist that could go for 100+ stacks (jade warp, comfy strati) and its not like the range is 8-100..

I just made it more clear on this thread and stated it directly. A disco, it only has one good stat so many more "godly" copies exist. It kind of acts like a percentile, 5% to 95% percentile of the mythic. If 1000 people ace the SAT and 10000 people took it, a range similar to the ones posted here wouldn't go up to perfect, but instead the next best. That is my reasoning for this one, but maybe the line for mythics with a higher amount of godly copies should have a much higher bar and only not include the perfect 200*** outlier?

It is up for debate

 

The two examples you gave are extreme outliers - there are only 1 or 2 that exist. When it comes to items such as the two grims that I posted earlier, or 190+ discos for example, they are maybe 5-10% of the total population of that type of item. You cannot remove 5-10% of data without negatively harming your statistics. Outliers are meant to remove individual values that would negatively impact the data. In the example that you gave, 10% of people getting perfect would NOT be considered an outlier, as it is a significant portion of the sample. (you would say "in this test, people scored from x-perfect", not "people scored from x-99%")

When considering that set of data, you would say that scores ranged from x-perfect, as it does not negatively impact the message you are trying to say. Saying that a mythic is worth x-y price does not negatively impact your message, as people will understand it as x price being the lowest, and y being the highest. However, removing a significant amount of mythics from the pool and saying that the item is only worth x-y WILL negatively impact what you are trying to say, as people do not naturally consider outliers when they look at a general range, and will just say that the highest an item can go for is y.

Plus, what is considered an outlier is completely up to you at this point, which is not good for a thread that should minimize bias as much as possible.

 

Concur, and I'll also note that practically speaking a 190+ Disco isn't super rare. If you reroll a Disco up to [3], the chances of obtaining a 190+ is about 20%.

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If you actually wanted to exclude the upper 5% of Discos, on rerolls up to [3] that means only excluding 199 and 197 Discos.

 

Completely agree - Minimizing bias is not only what I am striving for but also necessary, and doing so does require more of a raw subtraction rather than a %.
I think this case is more of a numbers issue - personally only seen 5 190+ discos, but ofc likely more that I think you guys put more weight on than I did. The 5-95% was more of an example (should have said raws), I am not actually calculating anything here. That said it is good to be as accurate as possible - removing discos along Druser's lines sounds accurate. Since most recently (a while ago, I actually haven't seen discos being sold or bought very recently, lmk if you know of any) I have seen higher double stars go for 40, is it fair to put the max at 38?

 

ADDED: Hadal Price, Sunstar

Poll Results: Keeping the name as "Semi-Important" won.

 

Added: Olympic
Updated: Moontower