Community Event Mythic Head Count

Um I thought he said not to post if you haven't gotten a mythic drop...

 

You can post it, but I can't include it in the tallies as 0/x number of mob kills is still 0 which is obviously not the probability we're looking for. It should take an estimated 142,858 mobs killed to get a mythic (1/0.000007). Honestly I think that value should be closer to 80,000 or 100,000 instead. I get that 7 is a fun number and .000007 looks really rare, but .00001 is far simpler and more balanced IMO.

 

20,000 chests later... I've gotten 1, so I'm due for another three :P

 

No seriously though... 20,000

 

671 719 mobs killed (probably like ~400k in wars) - 1 mythic (no loot bonus set used)
4900 chests - 0 mythics (loot bonus set used on at least 4500 t3/t4 chests)

 

Also, using loot bonus can double (+100%) or triple (+200%) your loot drops, essentially multiplying the effect of each kill. If you used loot bonus while farming, it will also affect your drop chance. I always wore +40% loot bonus on my first 2 characters, but that's not significant (66k + 66k*.4 = 92.4k mobs w/o LB%). Loot bonus is less effective on chests than mobs, but mobs drop 1 item by default, not a possible 27 as in loot chests (significantly more chances in each chest). Also loot bonus builds typically aren't good against enemies unless you've got Disco, in which case getting another mythic would still be faster by opening chests.

Makes sense.

Also makes sense ;)

Spoiler: Note for LB on chests

In my math on chests I used 1/27 where 1 is getting a mythic and 27 is the total slots in the chest. As you may know, not all chests are full, so loot bonus is necessary for most chests to make this applicable and reach the full potential of said chests. Chests are still a better method for acquiring mythics than mob drops, as they include more items, can be farmed through loot running, and don't fight back. Mob drops simply don't compare.

 

Got my 1 mythic yesterday. Total chest opened = 12,5k ( can be less because i loot chests with my low lv classes)

 

Unless the chance is changed, no.

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Mob drop?

 

190,857 mobs killed, no mythics. A lot of the mobs are from wars, lower level mobs and grind mobs, and I'm not sure how many so yeah.

...but I got a mythic (Divzer) after the update in ~2.1k chests, currently at 3,128 chests.

 

253,357 mobs killed, around 1400 chests opened.

I bought a hero after going to seavale everyday for 2 months, so never count that in. No mythics found

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the math is that you *would* get a mythic drop at like 142857 mobs (7/1mil) in ordinary calculations, but you still have a 36.789% chance that you never get a mythic drop after fighting that amount of mobs

 

Shouldn't you total amount of mobs killed people say in this thread / total of mythics dropped?
I don't understand how ignoring the mob kills of people who didn't get any mythic isn't making this data completly inaccurate.

Either way:
556k mob kills - 120k before gavel - extiamte of 30k of mobs not in level range = 406k mobs killed -> 0 mythics

Mobs in wars can drop mythics afaik, so I'm keeping them counted.


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General thing about this thread:
- players don't always check every single mob drop, opposite of opening a loot chest
- players might not have used mods to alert of mythics dropped (again, players most likely dont check every single item drop)
- since september (was it september?) 2018 item dropped no longer have data on their rarity, so mods can't display the rarity of any item dropped (again, players most likely dont check every single item drop)

so.. I really don't see how this can be accurate

 

mobs in war definitely 100% dont drop any item whatsoever

 

I'm pretty sure when I used to way they did

 

when you forgot stealing

 

loot IV chest

 

360,000+ mobs killed and I got Az from a mob drop (Actually got 2 because of a x2 loot bomb <3 )

 

Changing mythic drop rate at this point will cause significantly more damage than it'll fix.
The best thing they can do right now is to add at least one, Potentially even two new item rarity tiers to fill up the huge gap between Legendary and Mythic items.

 

This is just sampling. We can infer all these things, but knowing how people are getting mythics should be a priority. Again, these estimates aren't going to be perfect, and that's the point. As you said, players aren't perfect 100% of the item. Now that rarity checking on dropped items is gone, I'm sure it's going to be even fewer mythics from mobs.

What? The expected value for a player getting a mythic from mob kills is roughly 142857. IDK where you're getting 36.789%.

I think that's a lot harder than just making 2 more tiers. I agree that the gap between legendary and mythic is massive, which is why I want change, but Crafted is supposed to be that inbetween for legendaries and mythics. Crafted items can approach or reach mythic level power at their best and mostly waver just above legendary. I think the rarity is the biggest problem right now. Not a bad solution, but that might require a lot more items to be created, which will take a long time. Again, I'm not saying make mythics super easy to find, just reduce the rarity gap enough. I think mythics should be balanced around roughly how long it should take to get one which is why:

Players aren't going to stand around for 150k mob kills to get a mythic, they're going to loot run instead. Loot running is by far better than farming mob drops and I don't think that should be the case, from higher tier powders, to simply getting more non-emerald drops than from mobs. Just an opinion.

 

I'm in agreement on this point, an item tier to bridge the gap between items worth 2-8 LE and items worth multiple stacks would be very helpful.

 

On my Warrior:
1 Spring in 974 chests
1 Spring in 31,239 mobs

On my Archer:
NOTHING in 865 chests and 24,740 mobs