Psa Regarding Item Bomb Item Levels

Hello,

Now I enjoy myself a good item bomb party, especially when it spikes everyone's interest in one thing: getting the infamous mythic item from it. Most people are going to resort to going on their highest class for the bombs since most mythics are at level 90-100, with most of the ideal ones being at level 99. Before, any level 100/101 class would be fine with the level range, but as you already know, things have changed.

Now the maximum level for a class is 104, which would seem okay until you realize how the item bomb mechanic works. Depending on your class's level it will give you items within 4 levels of your current level. For a level 100 class, that meant you'd get items level 96-100. But applying this to a 104 class results in the range being level 100-104. That means a level 104 class can ONLY get level 100 items, which negates any chance at getting a mythic from the bombs.

That being said, level 103 would be an ideal class to receive item bombs on because it sets the range at level 99-103. This means you'll only get level 99 or 100 items, reducing the item pool as well as secluding the mythic possibilities to the more ideal level 99 ones. I thought I would share this with the public, especially as more 104s are being achieved over time.

Now, someone get a major item bomb party started and let's see if my information holds true...

 

This is true, as far as I'm aware (it happens with unleveled chests, at least). I'm in agreement that level 103 is probably the optimal level for item bombs.

 

then we cant get Spring, Monster, Gaia, Divzer, Inferno, Collapse, Nirvana, Grimtrap, Cataclysm, Thrundacrack, Lament, Weathered, Ignis, Grandmother, Nullification, Idol, Alkatraz, Freedom, Guardian, and Hero ):

 

but there are only 4 mythics in the 99-103 pool

 

But there's more mythics compared to the number of obtainable items.
There for your chance of getting one of the 4 is fairly good.

Of course, we don't know if thats true unless someone divided the number of mythics into the tottal items possible for each level range

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Actually, having done the math, level 100 seems to have the best number of possible items to mythics

Being as there are 126 possiblites 16 of which are mythics.

Level 101 comes in 2nd with 103 possible items, 11 of which are mythics.

103 is in 3nd place with 40 possible items, 4 of which are mythics.

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Keep in mind, that only means are your chances are highest at 100, not that you will get the one that you want.

It is statistically less likely that you will get one of the level 99 mythics at level 100 Then at level 103, that being said, it is more likely you get more mythics at 100.

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Note I didn't check every level, so this could be off, I will update it if I find out it is.

Bye <3

 

Level 100 would be more optimal because of the larger pool given, however thanks to the level cap increase it's harder to retain level 100 without just idling that class completely, and some of the newer quests such as Envoy or D&D have added benefits for completing them, which can risk losing the level 100 for those benefits due to that level not being buffered by a large amount of needed xp. This is especially critical for those who are returning and have old level 100 classes but multiple quests still needing to be done.

Knowing this I might hold back leveling my level 100 archer any further through quests, since level 100 seems like a good level to redeem item bombs. Of course, that's if there wasn't one minor party every few days...

 

You could set your guild xp to 100 every time you play that class

 

I strongly suspect the ratio of mythics to other items is irrelevant.

 

this ^^^

Regradless of how many different items there are the chances will still be 7/999999

 

Someone else is thinking too! Interesting topic:
I believe that technically a lower level player could get a mythic *drop*, the only problem is, when the armor stand/entity responsible for dropping the item is spawned, it cannot find any mythic tier items at the player's level range to drop. There might be an if statement that stops players outside the range of mythic drops from even getting that armor stand. Either way, the chances of getting a mythic at all are likely constant. The chance of getting a specific mythic will vary based on the number of other mythics the player has in the loot pool. It's likely a similar system to rolling for IDs (a range of values is produced and one is selected *randomly* which indicates the rarity of the item to drop. Then an item of that rarity is selected from the possibilities for a player at their level). All speculation. Some clarity on this topic would be nice tho. I can do the stats, just knowing the process would be nice.

 

does the lvl 103 thingy work on lootruns too?

so if im lvl 103 and lootrun can i get only Strati from a mythic bow since the other bows Arent in the range 99-103

 

no

 

Yes, if you open an unleveled chest.

 

Actually I was running some Corkus loot runs and unleveled chests do not work that way. Unlike item bombs, the level for chests caps at 100 (as seen by the potions in the chest). I opened one of the chests on a level 104 class and I found normal weapons set at level 97, which if it worked like item bombs would not be possible to obtain. That being said, as long as your class is level 100 you will receive level 100 unleveled chests which can contain items around 4 levels below there (so around level 96 or so).

 

You realize we are talking about loot bombs?

You always get 2 items with a loot bomb, so yes the ratio does matter.

 

While the ratio of the bombs is definitely higher for 103 versus other levels, it's unclear whether the item rarities still come into effect. If you do item bomb parties you'll notice you always seem to get normal and unique items, occasionally getting a rare and very rarely getting a legendary from it. If the item bombs do indeed use the same chances for items, then the ratio might not matter since you'll still only have 7/1,000,000 chance to get the mythic. All the ratio is doing is narrowing the range of mythics available for that level, since a level 103 account can only get level 99 mythics.

Of course none of this has been confirmed by high staff so this is all just theory for now. Though, it does seem like every major item bomb party that someone gets a mythic, so maybe the odds are a bit higher than other sources?

 

If the same probability table is being used for each of the two item types (bomb and loot drops), it's the same difference.
On another note, even if you are going to choose 2 instead of 1, you still need to know the probability table beforehand.
Lastly:
7/1,000,000 * 7/1,000,000 for 2 mythics, 7/1,000,000 * 999,993/1,000,000 for 1 mythic ,,,, if and only if ,,,, that is the probability of getting a mythic drop from all applicable sources.

 

yes, i can read so finding out this was about lootbombs wasnt hard. Im sure the odds of getting a certain rarity item from a bomb isnt affected by how many items are in the pool, thats just bad game design.

 

No, it does make a difference. As I said:

That's not bad game design, that's how probability works.
Chance of getting 1 thing is chance of thing occurring.
Chance of getting 2 same things is (chance of thing occurring * chance of thing occurring).
Chance of getting 2 different things is (chance of thing 1 occurring * chance of thing 2 occurring).

So, YES, getting 2 mythics is less likely than getting 1. Not surprising.

 

No. No, No, No.

NO! NO! NO! please make it stop ;-;

What the fuck are you saying here. You would be wasting money if the chance you got an item from an item bomb was 7/1,000,000 * 7/1,000,000. Are you thinking?

Yes there is, but that's not what we're here to discus. Actually, fuck it.

You don't know what probability is, please stop, thanks.

I highlighted the "if and only if" because I wanted to make clear how my method only works when the probability includes ALL MYTHICS APPLICABLE.

Wynncraft has a great system because it is so unclear that literally everyone makes the same mistakes even after having it described.

Allow me to break it down:
Imagine that you have a table of values. There are 1 million values. 7 of those indicate a mythic.
Everything else is Common, Unique, Rare, Legendary.
Now: Lets say you roll a die.
The die has a set number of sides and is assumed to be fair.
This die has 1 million sides. (7 / 1 Million)
7 sides are labeled "M", to indicate a mythic. (7 / Million)
If you roll it, you are deciding the rarity of the item, NOT the item itself.
Only the rarity is known after the die is rolled.

Therefore, the chance of getting a mythic never changes from level 0 to 104 because the table of values never changes.


What changes is the exact mythics you're able to get. These tables are completely different, but one depends on the other. If you roll an M, then the possible mythics available are determined and the mythic 'name' is selected separately.
That is the system I am referring to.

What your system looks like:

You have to control the number of times an item occurs in the list. You'd do this by duplicating elements to increase the chance of it occurring.
This requires a formula to keep all the elements at their specified occurrence ratio, which also introduces rounding errors if done improperly.
Here's a formula I came up with to describe what you're saying:

Lists containing all the items for each rarity the player can find at their current level are individually labeled "Common", "Unique", "Rare", "Legendary", and "Mythic".
If we want the rarity of items to stay within specific ratios, then we need to expand our range exponentially as the number of values in each list increases and decreases with the level of the player.
The length of that list is going to be the length of each of the rarity lists multiplied together because of a phenomenon called the pigeonhole principle.
TLDR: We don't want to stack elements together in the list as the above principle wants, so instead we're going to make enough pigeonholes, or positions for elements, to fit all the elements and use that to control the probability explicitly in a single list, rather than implicitly with subdivided lists.
For each of the spots in the array we need to fill the hole.
This means that each common item needs to be stored as an element in the range multiple times. That won't sound pretty as text, and I don't have time for that, so it happens often.
repeat for unique, rare, legendary, and mythic.
Now your 6 sided die analogy works because all the values are instantly present in the list. The only problem is your list will reach the millions of values very quickly because there are hundreds of items a player can find at any time. For example, at level 94 the player can get items that are level 90 to 98 (+ or - 4 levels). According to wynndata, that's 217 mob drop items, of which 33 are common, 76 are unique, 62 are rare, 26 are legendary, and 20 are mythic. This brings the list's total length to 33*76*62*26*20 = 80,857,920 (almost 81 million). But wait! There's more!
Because items that are mob drops also spawn in chests, a more accurate table would also include the additional 101 values associated with loot chests, bringing the total to 318 and bring the list's length to 33*(76+39)*(62+39)*(26+18)*(20+5) = 421,624,500 (almost 422 million). HOWEVER! Item bombs also drop non-quest/merchant items like turtle set, adding some more stuff too. Gotta tie back into the thread cause I feel bad for making a long post ;)

So, to summarize in the kindest words possible; Wynncraft most likely doesn't use your system to produce the items in chests as you described, otherwise I figured out where the lag is coming from and all the fix lag thread can stop.​