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Newcomb's Paradox

Discussion in 'Nemract's Bar' started by euouae, Apr 12, 2018.

?

What is your choice?

  1. Both Boxes

    7 vote(s)
    31.8%
  2. Box 2

    11 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. I honestly have no idea, get out of my head.

    4 vote(s)
    18.2%
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  1. euouae

    euouae euouae VIP Item Team

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    I'd like to share with you some interesting paradox that I found online, and this thread might include some reading, so beware.

    Newcomb's Paradox is a paradox theorized in 1960 by William A. Newcomb and Robert Nozick. Here's how it goes:

    Assume you are in a game show, and you have two closed boxes in front of you, labeled "Box 1" and "Box 2". The game show host explains that Box 1 will contain, and always contain, $5,000. Box 2 either contains a dust ball worth absolutely nothing, or a golden artifact worth $1,000,000. You have two choices:

    1. Take what is in both boxes, or
    2. Take what is only in Box 2.

    Seems easy, right? Now it gets strange and hard to decide.

    The host will make a prediction about what you will decide. If he thinks you will choose both boxes, he will put the dust ball in Box 2. If he thinks you will choose only Box 2, he will put the golden artifact in Box 2. Here's the catch: the host is almost ALWAYS correct. Remember Box 1 will still have $5,000, and it will never change.

    Now the host confuses you. He explains that he predicted and put the items in the box two months ago. The host has ALREADY put the items in the boxes.

    What do you think you will do? Take both boxes, or just what is in Box 2? Answer in the poll above.
     
  2. K1ttyK1tty

    K1ttyK1tty Travelled Adventurer

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    I don't like that.
     
  3. Ear Infection

    Ear Infection Back Again HERO

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    Box 1 is okay thp
     
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  4. Dr Zed

    Dr Zed Famous Adventurer

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    Both boxes? It’s not clear how he knows since he already put the items before you were even there.
     
  5. K1ttyK1tty

    K1ttyK1tty Travelled Adventurer

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    Actually I'd go with box 2
     
  6. akita neru

    akita neru boop beep HERO

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    So, what's the disadvantage of picking both boxes? If I understood correctly, picking both boxes gives you 5000-1005000, and picking only one gives you 0-1000000. Since the gameshow host only has a 50% chance of deciding correct, it has no real effect
     
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  7. yellowscreen

    yellowscreen Certified Lurker

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    The idea is, the host is correct 99% of the time. But if he put the items in 2 months ago, has something changed?
    As far as i understood anyways.
    ________________________________
    I’d grab box 2, as the chances are, if he has predicted you 2 months ago, he probably saw this happening.
     
  8. euouae

    euouae euouae VIP Item Team

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    Honestly, I saw both of your reasonings, so I would pick both boxes. But some people say that they'd only take Box 2.
     
  9. T-Flex

    T-Flex At the gym HERO

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    How is that a paradox? I don't get it.
    Also:
    How is that possible? That kind of stipulation ruined the entire point for me.
     
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