Guide Chances Of Getting Good Sp Items

Spoiler: wow ppl actually care about bmask

Spoiler: Blue Mask

perfect
0.00000000951465688%

getting a 75sp (15 15 15 15 15)
0.000159%

Spoiler: Shimmersight

a perfect shimmersight (not including -xp -lb and defences)
0.000000000565%

a good shimmersight (5sp 3mr)
0.0018%

Spoiler: The modulator

lol

Spoiler: Morph-Stardust

perfect (8sp in each)
0.0000739%
normal (6 in each)
0.0135%

Spoiler: Far Cosmos

perfect
0.00000231%

good (9 in each)
0.001653%

Spoiler: Libra

perfect (including damages)
0.00000000000720% (super oof after the correction)

perfect sp (excluding damages)
0.00236% (thats a pretty good chance jesus)

good sp (8 in each)
0.00353%

Spoiler: Sky chef's apron

perfect (excluding xp and lb)
0.0000739%

good (6 sp)
0.0135%

Spoiler: vAwArd

perfect (with damages)
0.000000000157% (

good (5 sp and 10% damages)
0.000298%

Spoiler: Disco

lol who dafuq uses disco
0.0000739%

good (6sp)
0.0135%

Spoiler: Ouroboros

perfect
0.00000000951%

good (5sp)
0.0304%

Spoiler: Prism

perfect
0.000000000000486%

normal (3sp)
0.372%

Spoiler: Facile

Perfect
0.00007776%

good (2sp)
2.973%

Spoiler: browess

no

Spoiler: Morph-Amethyst

perfect
0.0000739%

normal (2sp)
2.973%

Not-so-fun-fact: getting a 1 1 1 1 1 prism has a much rarer chance than getting a 3 3 3 3 3 prism

 

No <o/ \o>

 

fixed small mistake in libra

 

u better

 

legit comment : cud u plz make one for loot bonus sets

 

where the hell is blue mask?

 

yeah, probably tomorrow

 

you should still add the god damn glue mask though

 

You sure? I think you missed quite some zeros...

Example max amethyst is:
7.39859719e-7 --> 0.000000739%
(6^5/101^5)

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If you mean 20sp prism with "perfect" then its a god no... did you just spam zeros?

Its 0.0000511721%
(14^5/101^5)

 

Woah









how does one find this

 

That is a pretty large difference

 

i calculated it like: 14%^5*100 for the sp and 1%^5*100 for the defences.

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also max amethyst is: 6%^5*100 (0.00007776)

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@dukioooo if you think that i did calculation mistakes please pm me on discord and tell me how to correctly calculate it then, i really want this to be 100% accurate

 

done correcting the math
[corrected formula from (x/100)^5 to (x/101)^5 slight change, big (lol not really) difference ]
fixed too much and too little 0s on certain items

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getting a 4 has a 14% chance and getting a 3 has a 33% chance :/ (also i calculated the defence which has 1%)

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>added bmask kek

 

In wynndata if you go to a specific item in the database and scroll to the bottom of the page you can see the exact probabilities of every stat roll on the item. Make sure to actually hover your cursor over the given values though, as many are rounded unless you hover the cursor over the %. This thread is simply listing the chances of getting perfect rolls for these items. I think it'd be much more impressive to see the chances of getting a given amount of SPs or better on an item. For instance, most builds that use vaward need 25 or more. The math involved behind that is something like this:
P(Vaward of 25 or >) = P(35) + P(34) + P(33) + P(32) + P(31) + P(30) + P(29) + P(28) + P(27) + P(26) + P(25)
For each of those probabilities you'd be multiplying the % values given together, then multiplying that by all the different combinations that add up to the given value. That gets way harder when you start to incorporate more and more combinations. Thankfully many calculators can do this math for us stoopid hooomaaaannnsss. I'll probably get around to making an excel spreadsheet that calculates the probabilities and then post some results later.
@dukioooo or @RoseGoldIsntGay could probably do a better job of explaining this anyways.

 

for this calculations is better to not use the "real" % value, but consider it is 6/101 chances isntead of 5.94% since on the long run it would be more precise

 

which ones are 6/101?
EDIT: oh I understand what you mean now. Yea good idea.

 

I mean
We built the calculator

 

and I'm building another calculator ;)

 

@dukioooo

this may interest you

 

Too many characters for function "REPT" to repeat. Can't use google sheets ;(
EDIT: gonna try converting my sheet to excel then sharing results. It might only work in excel tho.