The Cost Of Higher Tier Horses With A Black Horse Merchant

I updated this thread, once before, because my original mathematics was horribly wrong, and I lost all of my work due to being timed out of the forums. I'm reviving this post, with the mathematics finally corrected.

I've often thought about this and wondered how much profit was made by VIPs when VIP Town existed, and when horse prices were pretty much set in the current market. I've finally taken the time to work them out, and, not surprisingly, the prices make sense from the point of view of the admins, who set the breeding odds and the price of black horses. The current cost of breeding horses is prohibitively expensive and is well discussed in @YunoFuckingGasai's thread.

Spoiler: I deleted this entire section just to save space

Why are you reading this?

Spoiler: Fuhgetaboutit! I headed for the lowest cost in Fig2 and Fig3 instead of the average

This junk is gone, too. Nothing to see in here, folks. Move along. I was erroneously moving towards the lowest cost to upgrade horses, not the average cost.

First, remember that the odds during any one horse breeding were, and are, set at 20% success, 50% getting the same type of horse, and 30% getting the next lower class, that is a ratio of 2:5:3. Second, in VIP Town, Black horses were 1LE, each. Third, for simplicity, and because I've already proven to myself that just simply breeding horses by pairs, without taking any progeny to further breed them, gives an average cost, instead of a non-average cost, that's how I'm going to continue with this; horses are bred without using their progeny. Now, with the errors in my previous math removed, thanks to @Potato Hoarder's explanations, and yes, I copied and edited one of his posts, for clarity, here's the real deal:

Let's use some clear variables. We are going to set our variables, as follows:
let b = 1 brown horse
let B = 1 Black horse
let C = 1 Chestnut horse
let W = 1 White horse.

We are going to start off with 20 Black horses so that we have enough horses to obtain the expected average breeding ratio as shown in the Wiki. We know that the cost of one Black horse was 1LE each, therefore, the cost of buying 20 Black horses was = 20 x 1le = 20LE. Now, given the information in the Wiki, we should get 2Chestnut + 5Black + 3brown horses, on average, from breeding 20Black horses. We want to know how much Chestnut and White horses cost, on average, with a Black horse merchant, therefore, we have our cost set at 20 Black horses, and we know the cost of both the same type horses (Black), and the failed horses (brown). Therefore, we can write the following equation, where we get 2 Chestnut horses, 5Black horses, and 2brown horses:

2C = (20B - 5B - 3b)
2C = ((20 x 64) - (5 x 64) - (3 x 24))
2C=(1280EB - 320EB - 72EB)
2C=888EB
C=444EB = 6LE 60EB.
That was the average cost to breed a Chestnut horse.

Using the same method as above, we want to find the average cost of breeding a White horse, now that we know that the average cost of a Chestnut horse was 444EB. Given the information in the Wiki, we should get 2White + 5Chestnut + 3Black horses, on average, from breeding 20Chestnut horses. Therefore, we can write the following equation:

2W = (20C - 5C - 3B)
2W = ((20 x 444EB) - (5 x 444EB) - (3 x 64EB))
2W=(8880-2220-192)
2W = 6468EB
W=3234EB = 50LE 34EB.
That was the average cost to breed a White horse.

With a Black horse merchant, the cost ratio of Black horses to brown horses was set at 1LE:24EB (64EB:24EB) = 2.6...
In the first calculation, the cost ratio of Chestnut to Black horses is (444EB:64EB) = 6.9375.
In the second calculation, the cost ratio of White to Chestnut horses is (3234EB:444EB) = 7.283...
Therefore, on average, it cost approximately 7 times more to obtain either a White horse than a Chestnut horse and to obtain a Chestnut horse than a Black horse. Alternatively, the cost of a brown horse was 37.5% of the cost of Black horse (24EB/64EB), the cost of a Black horse was 14.4%... of the cost of Chestnut horse (64EB/444EB), and the cost of a White horse was ≈ 13.7% of the cost of a Chestnut horse (444EB/3234EB).

So, here is the upshot of all of this: it does not make sense that the game designers meant for horses to be bred from a beginning tier of brown horses as doing so is prohibitively expensive (op. cit.). In fact, breeding the higher tiers of horses must have been meant to be a perk of having donated to the server and gaining VIP status, as the cost of breeding higher tier horses makes better sense if we begin breeding with Black horses at a cost of 1LE each.

 

this math is incorrect, spending about an hour making a formula and simulator in excel I ended with a result of ~46.4LE for a white and ~4.3LE for a chestnut, I also had a profit/LE spent ratio of ~.216LE, I used values of 20EB for browns, 1LE for blacks, and 64LE for whites in this simulator and ran it using 200,000 blacks at 1LE apiece with a cost of 200,000LE, a resulting amount equaling 2432207.422LE, and a profit of 432207.4219LE

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I was also using the 2:5:3 ratio and ran the breeding for 50 operations

 

Every time you breed two horses only one comes back, you can't breed ten blacks and get back ten horses.

 

Oh, my lawd. Was I really that asleep? Yes, yes I was.

@Oculus SORRY, I've changed my mind. Please don't close this thread! I'm going to rework the math, instead. I don't want to create a new thread.

 

I want to get a post in before it closes because this thread is actually cool

 

I've finally updated this post with corrected (please!) mathematics. This isn't necroposting, which I don't like, however, it is purely updating, so that I did not make a second thread about these calculations.

 

To get a ratio of 2:5:3, wouldn't you need to breed 20 horses together to get 10? (2+3+5) 20/2 = 10?

Instead of 12/2 = 6 horses returned?

 

Edited, cleaned up, re-written, put through the washer, hung out to dry, vacuumed, cauterized, dry cleaned, brushed off, given a new paint job, clean clothes, a haircut, and fixed. I'm talking about my original post in this thread. What the heck did you think I was talking about? Gravel?
Black, Chestnut, and White horses, especially, are prohibitively expensive without a Black horse merchant.

 

Thanks :D

 

From this thread I can gather that the average cost of a horse when breeding with black horses is cheaper then when breeding from browns, the rest of it makes my eyes bleed.