Were horse breeding chances changed?

Yesterday I spent 20le on brown horses trying to breed them into black horses, but I only got 3 (usually I get around 10). According to the binomial distribution there's a 0.66% chance of getting 3 or less horses when doing 49 breed attempts assuming the chance to get a black horse is 20%. Maybe I just got really unlucky or something.

later that day I did 74 attempts at breeding brown horses into black horses, and again I got unlucky, only getting 12 black horses.

There's either a 0.17% chance I got extremely unlucky, or horse breeding chances were modified. This was not in any changelogs.

Also I got 12/123 successes which is close to 10%, making me think they changed the success chance to that (down from 20%).

I lost ~30le from my tests after selling the black horses I got.

 

I don't think horse breeding chances changed, you were just really unlucky.

 

it's a chance not a guarantee
horse breeding in general is not worth it, you can find horses on trade market

 

Brown->black horse breeding was actually worth it before the change (unless it was always like this and I'm just bad).

The wiki claims the chance for the horse to get upgraded is 20%, but according to the binomial distribution (which takes into account sample size) this is simply not the case (unless I'm really unlucky, but there's only a 0.17% of that).

 

well it's probably the latter then