Guide Running The Forgery For A Mythic Isn't Worth It.

Not sure if this thread has been made before, but I'll give it a shot anyways.

I thought it would be interesting to calculate the chances of actually obtaining a mythic via the forgery chest, and, lets just say, it's not a good option, mainly due to hyperinflation in broken corrupted key prices and the extreme rarity of rune and key guardians.

For those who haven't bought any forgery keys on the trade market, the current price for a broken key (that is, if any are being sold, which due to reasons we will get into later, may not be) is around 1LE. Once the key is fixed, the price doubles. Not too bad right? WRONG. Obtaining the keys required for a single forgery run costs 7LE, which allows you to run the forgery ONCE, and gives you a 1% chance at finding a mythic.

So how many times do you need to run the forgery before finding a mythic?

Well, to calculate this, we must use the probability of NOT finding a mythic after n forgery runs, which comes out to be 0.99^n. Since the inverse is more important to us, we will instead change the equation to 1-0.99^n. This means after 50 forgery runs, the chance of finding a mythic is 36.6%.
After 100 runs, that number jumps up to 63.3%.
After 200 runs, 86.6%.
And finally, after 300 runs, 95%.

How much does this cost?

To calculate the cost, we're simply going to go with the lowest estimate and say that each key costs 1LE, with every full run being 7LE. Note that this doesn't take into account any slip ups (like falling off the forgery), or any deaths during the runs, nor the potential emeralds gained while completing or running through the dungeons.
This puts our first chance after 50 runs costing a total of 5 and a half stacks.
After 100 runs, 11 stacks.
After 200 runs, 22 stacks.
And finally, after 300 runs, 33 stacks.

33 STACKS of LE for a 95% chance to find ONE mythic.

Of course, there is an alternative, dungeon bombs.

72 dungeon bombs from the store costs 50USD without a sale. Since you can generally run about 2 forgery dungeons with each dungeon bomb, this puts out ratio at 2 runs per 7 bombs. To find out the cost, we need to do some slightly complex ratio calculations, more specifically, (50USD/72DB)*(7DB/2Run)*(xRun)=USD
For our first chance after 50 runs, the cost is roughly 121.52USD, or 3 Dungeon Bomb purchases.
After 100 runs, 243.06USD, or 5 Dungeon Bomb Purchases.
After 200 runs, 486.11USD, or 10 Dungeon Bomb Purchases.
And finally, after 300 runs, 729.17USD, or 15 Dungeon Bomb Purchases.

750USD for a 95% chance to find ONE mythic.

This doesn't even take into account the opportunity cost of the time spent doing the dungeons, which could alternatively be spent loot-running or really doing anything else to obtain a mythic.

How can this be fixed?

First off, this problem doesn't just affect mythic hunters. It also affects normal players who simply want the items obtained through dungeon merchants. From what I see, this problem can be fixed one of two ways, either by buffing key/Nii guardian spawns, or by making obtaining keys more about looking in a specific area rather than pure RNG (I'll go into this more in an actual suggestion post).

For now, save your money, sell your keys, and save up to buy a mythic instead.

 

ok thanks for telling me , was planning to do this to get a mythic , nvm now

 

destroyed @YYGAYMER

 

we need this

 

The forgery chest is just a scam, and just like raids it underpays you for your work, so you lose money and dont gain anything from it unless you get super lucky and get a mythic in like your first 10 chests or something, thats it if you dont fail and always open a 7/7 chest, tbh i dont understand why the rewards are so abyssmal

 

This is just a symptom of a greater problem with how getting money through endgame content and playing the more fun aspects of the game are horribly suboptimal compared to the mindless but profitable methods like loot running and endgame profs (profs with champion rank are a whole other can of worms). Like, running raids is literally a hemorrhage in cash and time unless you get super lucky with tomes which can’t even be sold. chests, raids, and endgame boss altars just need to be buffed across the board whether it be more accessibility or greater rewards (it should be both tbh).

 

I think it should be all, idk why but salted just has a kink for not giving enough emeralds for our work regarding raids or forge chests, but oh well, guess we didnt have enough rupees and he couldnt give credit

 

Two things to consider: First, you are calculating the chances to get at least one mythic, but in reality, you could end up with more than one. 33 stacks for a 95% chance to find one mythic sounds bad, but on average, you would actually get three mythics, or 11 stacks per mythic. Second, if you run the dungeons in a party, you can share the cost among up to four people, bringing the cost further down to 2,75 stacks per mythic (as a sidenote, some sort of matchmaking could be quite helpful). Of course you can still get unlucky and be one the 5% who do 300 runs without a mythic, but as of now, this luck-factor also applies to all other ways of getting mythics besides buying them.
However, I still don't think that the forgery chest is a good way to get mythics specifically (I don't know about the other rewards), mainly because of the huge amount of time required to run 700 individual dungeons and because key prices would certainly increase if more people start farming mythics this way. And I do agree that key/rune guardian spawn rates could be increased.

 

Nice one, pretty accurate justification and full of good advices

 

Did you forget that Salted intended for this to not be more effective than lootrunning?
Taken from his August CT post "It gives XP (its main reward), emeralds, runes, tokens (to use in dungeon shops) and... mythics." "5: We made the Forgery Chest give other types of rewards than just XP... including Mythics. Not to worry, this is a VERY inefficient way to get a Mythic. But we will definitely run this through a HERO beta to make sure it's not too OP. Loot running should still be more effective."

 

I'm aware, but that still doesn't negate the fact that running the forgery is a massive emerald sink, and while it may not be necessarily more EFFECTIVE than lootrunning, it still shouldn't be nearly impossible due to the extreme rarity of guardian spawns. This isn't even taking into account the fact that all of the forgery dungeons sell extremely useful items that are now extremely difficult to get due to the decreased spawn rates.

 

iirc tomes can be sold to the blacksmith now, which is nice ig. but the lack of profitability & good rewards from raids is gonna kill them. soon, if you dont have a dedicated group its gonna be hard to run things like tcc and nol once theyve been out for a bit, which is a real shame because theyre really fun it took me around 90 runs to get the tomes i wanted (4 fabled tomes of the same type btw), and lucky for me i had a group to run it with, but if i didnt, then i wouldnt be able to have the tomes i wanted (or it would take a lot longer due to trying to assemble agroup), which really sucks since most players arent gonna have that sorta group

 

i feel like having only one optimal way to get a rare resource is garbage game design and could force players who want a mythic and can't pay for it to do something they very well might not want to do in the slightest.

Lootrunning is a mindless grinding activity, and i think that the forgery chest allows for more user interaction, even if marginal. I for one do not like the idea of running around gavel or corkus and grabbing things out of chests for hours on end to get a good item just because you can't afford it.

I'm all for buffing the forgery, but also we have to be aware that we can't make things too broken, or else the market will go haywire.

 

I do not see any issue with guardian spawns, Ni guardians spawn every 5-10 minutes whenever I sit afk grinding for unicorn horns. I think the issue would lie in the drops themselves since they drop only 1-3 per kill. Since the forgery chest has been implemented, I have seen more dungeon bombs dropped by people actively grinding for it, this is using a 24 hour time frame since I am in the bomb tracker discord, how would the difficulty of getting dungeon items be more difficult if more dungeon bombs are more accessible?

You are underestimating the value of mythics, it is not only a "rare resource", its THE rarest. Everybody wants one but not everyone can get one. Take another look at the loot section in the help tab in this website. Description says for Mythics "Most players will never find any of their own" meaning that unless you do actively grind for one or get extremely lucky, you will most likely never find one. Pretty much anything you do in this game can reward with you a mythic at some point if you do enough of it. Mob grinding during dloot is another optimal method because LQ is not capped on mobs, and it can provide you with double the mythics though its not always active, doing professions and selling materials will give you enough wealth to buy it, looting random chests while doing quests can also provide you with a low chance to get one but it is still a chance, even destroying pots can give you a mythic. Lootrunning is simply opening all chests since it gives the most loot, not XP or runes like the forgery chest, it also does require some user interaction because you actually have to look for chests and route them, if not and follow a preplanned route then that is on you for taking the exploration aspect of the game out of your experience. You mention that lootrunning is a mindless grinding activity but wouldnt grinding dungeons for hours on end become "mindless grinding" since you will eventually remember parkour routes and such?.
My point is that you need that you need to put in the time and actively look for a mythic if you actually want it.

 

The only guardian I have seen reliably spawn are Corrupted Undergrowth Ruins key guardians. I have searched for hours to try and find others, used multiple mob totems, and still found a grand total of 0 other key guardians. Is it any coincidence then that people are selling broken corrupted keys for nearly 2LE on the trade market? C'mon even you gotta admit that's a ridiculous price for a key.

 

Can confirm this, nii guards outside the forgery actually spawn pretty frequently, and is the reason I'm now rich

 

Ever wonder how those keys get on the market in the first place?

 

just get a grim on your 2nd full chest, near easiest 4 stx of my life

 

BTW, all the key guardians have nodes (or cords) at which they spawn. The main issue is that a large number of these nodes seem to have been nerfed this update. My CLS farming node spawns a guardian once every 30 minutes if I’m lucky.

 

I’m still pretty livid at how Lootrunning has been the most effective method of getting money for the past three years or so despite the fact that it’s
A. Not an officially supported activity (IE it wasn’t originally developed as an activity like raids and dungeons were)
B. One of the easiest activities in the game
And C. An activity that actively punishes build diversity and group play
I think a large part of why the past two updates, and ESPECIALLY the 1.20 update, fell so flat with players is that they didn’t actually shake up the endgame rewards loop, which at this point is literally just lootrunning. They just added new stuff that makes doing that same endgame loop a little bit easier (Loot Quality and Tomes especially). I mean once you get the tomes you want from raids there’s not really anything else to do but go back to lootrunning, because that’s where the items and by extension the money is.

As for the Forgery, this is a large part of why I feel like the game is being designed around bombs. You could either spend 7 LE Or hours of your time on a single forgery run, or you could buy four dungeon bombs and go immediately (or wait for someone else to throw four bombs). It feels like the game is gating access to activities behind a time or paywall.