Forgery Experience Math - 72 Runs For 106

So I was bored and decided to run some math on the Corrupted Dungeons and the Forgery's Chest

TlDr: With all of the lump xp given, you'd be able to get from 105 to 106 in aboutl72 Forgery Runs, with the resources being awful, and P2Wing it isn't much better.

This math has been updated after having to account for the Xp decay given as you increase in level. These were pulled and rounded down from my 105 Hunter with 5% Bonus Xp as the only Xp modifier, so true min-maxing can greatly expedite the path.

Also thanks @btdmaster for help with the Nearly Guaranteed math, and the Great Bovine @Salted himself for correcting the previous experience gain issues

 

*still gets 0 Mythics*

 

I mean there’s only like a 40% cumulative chance of getting a mythic at that point

 

Oh damn the Great Bovine himself posted to my thread, that's awesome

These values were ripped from the Wiki, I had a feeling CIB and CUR were off at the lease, considering the Xp jump and bizarre total given. Will update with accurate totals and prolly an imgur album for evidence and for the wiki dudes to fix the page up

If this kind of stuff came up a year ago i would now all of the AP Stats I would need to prove that's wrong, but what I do know is safe to say that's how it'd work. Each run is a 1% and just because you did 99 without one mythic is inaccurate; Flipping a coin with 3 heads in a row doesn't mean the next flip is guaranteed to be tails. I can steal the formula from the Warframe Wiki for expected and guaranteed percentages as a temporary solution however in a bit.

Edit: While I break down the math and Formula, I hyperlinked the math from said wiki. Context to the game is not too important, but figure i'd give something for you while I reverse engineer some things I barely understand

 

the probability is pretty simple here, actually? Since all of these events are independent, you just multiply the probabilites, and in this case, .99 chance of not getting a mythic to the power of 50 because 50 runs each with their own chance of .99, which comes out to .605, or 60.5% chance of not getting a mythic.
For a 99% chance at one, you'd need to do 458 runs, and for a 50%, 69 (nice) runs.
The Warframe wiki isn't very useful here, since it's calcuating both items of different rarities AND multiple items, it would be useful if the question was like how many runs to get 2 fableds and a mythic.

 

Yeah i was breaking down the math getting stuck at .01-.01^x-.99^x=0 trying to figure out how to solve for x in the exponent twice and without a trinomial. Looking to solve for 99%, 99.9%, and 99.99%. I was able to reverse engineer it fine though going from 3 variables to 2 was a little bit of a headache, compounding trying to open the folds in my brain of stuff long lost. Though the 99% is good to know as a starting point, the criticism is fair too, given the task at hand that wiki was the first thing that came to my mind to use to solve for this situation.

I was able to get an expected value of 102-103 Full Forgery runs, however expected is different to nearly guaranteed like the 458+ runs would offer as a better idea to what difference in gains the Forgery Chest can offer mathematically speaking, even if it's vastly inferior I at least find breaking this stuff down to be fun when done sparingly

____

After rereading your math I got the nearly guaranteed runs at 688 +/- 229 Full Forgery Runs

 

Yeah, to find any value you like you can reverse the equation I used (y=1-[0.99^x]) to get log.99(y-1)=x, y being the desired percentage chance of a mythic in decimal form and x being number of runs, or alternatively
ln(-y+1)/ln(0.99) since most calculators can't do custom log bases.
It is rather funny (well, kind of sad) that 1 in 100 players will have to run the entirety of the forgery 458 times to get a mythic...

 

https://imgur.com/a/s98c9Xe

Just ran through the dungeons, and the experience gained was weird to say the least. Link above as proof, I had +5% Xp bonus and no other xp modifiers for these numbers, then again I could be misinterpreting these values:

CDS: 50,315
CIP: 85,902
CLS: 122,061
CUC: 184,773
CSST: 265,692
CIB: 369,974
CUR: 569,629

Any help from you or others would be amazing

 

Your level affects the xp, right?

 

It should only for the boss mob, which makes some of these numbers easy to break down and others not so much (especially CUR with that takedown)

The main issue is the disconnect between the owner's word and what the evidence shows

 

Huh. the more you know. Thank you, will correct the data when I get home

 

Bump for rewrite of the thread with proper calculations