Update Release Theory

So, (unless Salted has announced the date on Discord) we don't know when 1.20 will come out.
To estimate the approximate date, we need to look at 1.18 and 1.19 , as those were the most recent updates.

1.19:
Trailer on Oct. 28
Changelog on Nov. 8
HERO Beta on Nov. 12
Release on Dec. 8
That's 15 days between Trailer and Beta, and 26 days between Beta and Release.
The changelog also came out 4 days before the Beta.

1.18:
Trailer on Nov. 18
Changelog on Dec. 4
HERO Beta on Dec. 6
Release on Jan. 18
That's 18 days between Trailer and Beta, and a whopping 43 days between Beta and Release.
The changelog also came out 2 days before the Beta.

Based on these statistics, we can assume that it will take 11 to 16 days for the changelog, 2 to 4 days for the Beta, and 26 to 43 days for the Release.
However, 1.19 is more recent, and so its statistics are more reliable, leading to a better prediction of 10 to 15 days for the changelog, 1 to 5 day(s) for the Beta, and 25 to 35 days for the release.

Prediction dates:
Trailer on Nov. 8
Changelog on Nov. 18 - 23
Beta on Nov. 19 - 28
Release on Dec. 14 - Jan. 2

These are not exact, however they give us a good indication of when 1.20 could come out.

EDIT:
Salted has spoken.

So, here are my new predictions:
14 to 21 days for the changelog, 2 to 7 days for the Beta, and 30 to 45 days for the release.
These are more based on the 1.18 dates than the 1.19 as the 1.18 update took quite a while.

New prediction dates:
Trailer on Nov. 8
Changelog on Nov. 22 - 29
Beta on Nov. 24 - Dec. 6
Release on Dec. 24 - Jan. 20

EDIT: The Changelog is out (Nov. 24) - Which is in my predicted period!

New prediction dates:
Trailer on Nov. 8
Changelog on Nov. 24
Beta on Nov. 26 - Dec. 1
Release on Dec. 26 - Jan. 14

Funnily enough, these pretty much match Salted's statements on the update post!

EDIT: The Beta is out (Dec. 8) - Which is outside of most predictions by everyone

New prediction dates:
Trailer on Nov. 8
Changelog on Nov. 24
Beta on Dec. 8
Release on Jan. 7 - 22

EDIT: It came out on Jan. 22 - Yay I was right woo

 

i get why you think that it wil take 11-16 days for the hero beta but you can’t really tell how long the beta wil be up. if there are little no bigs it wil take a shot amount of time but if a lot of bugs pop up (what i kinda really expect with this update cuz of the guild update and guilds don’t even work properly rn) so yea just wamted to have said that for some reason

 

actually thats the release date I predicted. I already thought it would be around Christmas ... hope you are right ^^

 

It's also worth noting that Gavel's 5th anniversary is December 20, which is right within your predicted ranges. I'm just saying, it'd fit for an update named "Gavel Reborn"

 

That would also be 12/20/2020
Lots of 20s

 

Really hope this is true

 

I gotta say that would be awesome in theory, but I feel like it's probably really challenging to release an update on a specific deadline. But then again, what fits the spirit of the gavel update more than delays?

Also given the sheer amount of stuff that seems to be added, I feel like the beta could end up lasting A LOT longer than usual, but that's just a hunch of mine.

 

If the update were to release on December 25, that would already be like a Christmas gift to most people (myself included)

 

Possible, however it is:

 

I think it would be really cool if it came out the same day gavel did (dec 21st)

 

See:

Dec. 21 was already early, very unlikely now that we know it will probably be late.

 

Better late and good than early and bad

EDIT: uh, words were missing

 

release 20/20/2020

 

bumpity bump

 

This really is Gavel 2 then, isn't it?

 

January 2021 maybe. I don't expect anything good to happen during the year of 2020.

 

Yeah, I'm expecting early to mid-January.

 

bumpity bump bump bump

 

Good job on the prediction for the changelog being with Salted’s failed 200 tease