Wynn's Economy

Before incoming update i want know what's wrong with economy.

 

That depends on whether you think something is actually wrong with the economy. As it stands, in my opinion the only real problem with the economy is the lack of items covering the gap between good legendaries (10-15 LE) and decent-bad mythics (1-2 stacks).

Honestly, I don't expect any major positive changes to the economy with 1.18 - in fact I anticipate mainly negative effects.

 

Why?

Spoiler

In fact i wanted to trigger people who say that's economy is broken

 

The economy is only bad because inflation is very prominent right now. Despite what people say, it is quite easy to acquire money at the moment without relying on rng to find a mythic or lootrunning in general (seavale reef, when looking in the right spots, can get you ~2-3le a hour and/or using another character to do quests as examples). There's also the gap between good legendaries and decent-bad mythics like Druser said, but some legendaries still do cost a small fortune (18 sp prisms for example can usually go for around half a stack).

One main goal of 1.18 is to try and slow down inflation, hence why they nerfed a load of the quest rewards. I feel like they shouldn't have been so hard on the quest rewards (Royal Trials went from 6->1le for example) since they said themselves that they wish to make it easier for players to acquire good wealth without needing to rely on rng as well, and this does make it harder for newer players to get money. However, the crafting system might drastically impact how the economy works. We will have to wait until 1.18 is released to see the full outcome of that.

 

I haven't really seen evidence that there's massive inflation in the economy, at least not since the changes from Gavel. (e.g. have prices in general changed significantly from 2 years ago?) I'm also not convinced that inflation of the current level is necessarily a major problem.

My main concern with the 1.18 changes are the near-elimination of ways for newcomers to make money. Mythics are still valid of course, and Seavale might be (has anyone in the beta tested Seavale yet?). The addition of crafting means that selling gathered items or ingredients is a new possibility, which is nice. Crafting might work, but in my opinion is much more likely to be in the domain of a small number of sellers or groups. Meanwhile, quest rewards are nerfed drastically so newcomers "start out" with much less money. Item buyer price nerf mean that lootrunning and item grinding is not very profitable anymore, since you lose money except when you sell to players. I would expect significant price increases for most marketable items, since far fewer people would be willing to ID an item if they're going to lose money on doing so most of the time, hence a decreased supply of items (I wouldn't expect to see these effects for several months, since the current stock will last quite a while). It's possible that an auction house could mitigate this somewhat, since you would be able to put up items with mediocre IDs for sale without overwhelming transaction costs, but I'm skeptical that there will be enough demand for such items.

 

They have changed significantly, but that doesn't change the fact that people are making money much faster than it is being used. Inflation is a huge problem because it makes whatever is being inflated worth less. If inflation continues, LE becomes worthless and prices rise even higher, making it much harder to gain wealth. If you want an actual example of clear inflation, just look at powders. Powders were worth around 6le for a single t6. You can now buy 3 t6 powders for that exact same amount.

Like I said, we'll have to wait and see. However, I seriously doubt crafting will be as unpopular as you make it seem. The reason I believe this is crafted items can become ridiculously broken by the looks of it. For example, somebody (I believe it was @GlassJarss?) has already done all of LI in the literal beta due to his crafted items in the jewelling department. How does this come into the economy? Well, I'd assume Glass got very good ingredients and found them himself, but other people aren't going to be as dedicated to finding said ingredients nor gathering the necessary materials to craft said items. Thus, things needed for crafting or even crafted items themselves will probably be very prominent in the market if this occurs. As said though, we're just going to have to wait and see how drastic the impact is. I was unaware that the item buyer prices were nerfed as well, but lootrunning will still probably be fine in terms of money making because powders exist and you could actually collect the emeralds from the chest. I don't know if you can get ingredients from chests though (the only one I know of is Bob's tear).

 

You've just described the opposite of price inflation - or rather, you've shown that powders enter the market much faster than emeralds.

I definitely think crafted items will be prominent in the market, I just don't think crafting will be a viable money-making method for large numbers of people - I expect it to be mostly done by a few players. Gathering and refining should be fine though.

I completely forgot about powders and emeralds actually, heh.

Item buyer is more than just nerfed - from the figures I've seen, you lose about 5-10% of the identifying cost on average (more on higher tiers). I'm mainly concerned about an upward spiral in prices.

 

Confused by what you mean. Interestingly, you ignored everything else I had said except for this, and I believe you were missing the point I was trying to make.

Powders inflated because it became so easy to acquire them, and the same stands true for how to currently get money. It was not meant to be an example of how powders are entering the economy faster than emeralds, but it was to show you how drastically the value of something can decrease when there is loads of it, which applies to both powders and emeralds currently.

We will still have to see. It might become popular to make money off of crafting, it might not. For all we know, the prices of other items could remain the exact same. The item buyer thing doesn't seem to be as dramatic as you make it seem though.

 

although i agree with you on that there's inflation, i think that druser is right that your example wasn't the best

from what i have gathered,

you (in the paragraph) first established that LE is losing value
you then bring in an example of powders
BUT, your example is this: it used to be 6le for a powder, now it's 6le for 3 powders

however, this shows liquid emeralds INCREASING in value (which shows deflation for LE), as now, with LE (which is supposedly is losing value), you can buy more things with the same amount.

 

Concerning items currently priced in the 2-15 LE range, about how much have prices inflated since early 2017? (or if you weren't market-aware at that time, early 2018?) I'm expecting no more than about 30% annual inflation, which I'd say isn't that problematic.

For that matter, is there anyone else around who's knowledgeable about the state of the market over the last few years?

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Another line of speculation - would the decreased lootruns significantly affect mythic prices? Maybe not, if the sort of people who tend to find mythics would lootrun anyway. A price increase among other items might fill the existing gap below mythics.

I'm really much more concerned about the drastic quest reward nerfs. I can understand cutting by e.g. 50%, but cuts of around 70-80% seem rather excessive.

 

That is true, but was not my intention. My intention was to try and demonstrate how the value of something decreases when more and more if it comes in, as I stated here.

I haven't even been here since early 2017 (I came to Wynn August of 2017), nor was I here for early 2018 because I took a 3-4 month ish break during January. What I can tell you is that some prices (such as that of a 7/4s mr aquarius) significantly increased in terms of price due to the rounding update.

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Maybe yes maybe no. Mythic prices are, like most items, affected mostly by supply and demand. It would depend on that more than exclusively lootrunning, and mob grinding for mythics also would still exist.

 

What I'm wondering is since there are different element "spirits" that drop a I-III tier powder for their respective element, will this reduce the price of powders since they will be easier to get?

 

These have been around for a while, is there something new that I'm missing?



Alright, so I'll hold off on saying anything more until we get good price information:

 

I agree that I don't think they should've nerfed them as much as they did, but a nerf was still needed for most of them.

^Things like Flarelings (or whatever those things around MH are called) already exist in the game (unless these are the things you are talking about), and lootrunning is still far superior in terms of collecting powders.

 

Lol ok I'm dumb I just never saw one
oof

 

his argument is regarding powders being less useful because theyre getting more and more common, thus powder inflation

t 6s where over 1 stack when they first came out

 

the reason why its bad is because it doesnt depends in how hard you "work" to get the emeralds, it depends in how Lucky you are.

 

They used to be powder imps not spirits

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Well Shrines were removed in 1.17 meaning that you can no longer grind a T6 Powder day and night as it was an 8 hr delay (was it client-side?)

 

you couldnt get t6 powders from shrines

 

It exists boi https://wynncraft.gamepedia.com/Red_Powder_VI_Relic