Horse Crafting

A few months back, I tried to get a chestnut horse. After about five attempts, I got a black horse, and after about another five attempts, I got a second black horse. I combined these two black horses, and I got a chestnut horse--first try.

Then I lost the horse, and today, I tried again to get a chestnut horse. I had the same exact luck. What are the odds (and if you want to post the actual math, go ahead)?

 

20% better, 50% same, 30% worse

 

Odds of your exact scenario?

So to get a black horse after 5 breeding attempts is statistically a 100% chance. That was quite unlucky.
Then you combined the two, which as a 20% chance of succeeding, and it happened.
20% chance of that happening if my math is right (I’m not a statistician, I’m probably wrong).

Then a 20% chance of that happening again.

The chance of your scenario is around 4%

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Probably very very wrong though

 

nah, for that exact scenario happening there is a 1.8*10^-6 out of a 100 to happen.
but the text simplifies it down.
you need the possibility of the next happening:
1) breeding two browns and failing 80%
2) breeding two browns and failing 80%
3) breeding two browns and failing 80%
4) breeding two browns and failing 80%
5) breeding two browns and succeeding 20%

6) breeding two browns and failing 80%
7) breeding two browns and failing 80%
8) breeding two browns and failing 80%
9) breeding two browns and failing 80%
10) breeding two browns and succeeding 20%
11) breeding two blacks and succeeding 20%
12) breeding two browns and failing 80%
13) breeding two browns and failing 80%
14) breeding two browns and failing 80%
15) breeding two browns and failing 80%
16) breeding two browns and succeeding 20%
17) breeding two browns and failing 80%
18) breeding two browns and failing 80%
19) breeding two browns and failing 80%
20) breeding two browns and failing 80%
21) breeding two browns and succeeding 20%
22) breeding two blacks and succeeding 20%
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